María Corina Machado has received the express support and unanimous backing of all the opposition organizations that belong to the Unitary Platform. Despite the fact that the Supreme Court of Justice of Venezuela, controlled by the Chavista ruling party, ratified the veto on her participation in this year's presidential elections, the leader of all the polls is not dropping out of the race for now. presidency.
Support for Machado has included leaders such as Manuel Rosales, from Un Nuevo Tiempo, governor of the State of Zulia, at the other ideological and strategic extreme of the candidate. Rosales would be a potential competitor at this time, since, on the one hand, he maintains good relations with the Miraflores Palace in Caracas and, on the other, he is qualified to participate.
“We insist on rejecting political disqualifications, because they do nothing to solve the current conflict. This action against María Corina Machado, the Unidad candidate elected in the popular consultation on October 22, is inexcusable and becomes a setback to the efforts of Venezuelans to overcome this tragedy,” Rosales said on social networks.
But even with the unrestricted support of almost all political parties, and Machado's enormous popularity in opinion polls, certain spokespersons from the moderate sectors of the democratic field – usually very reluctant towards his leadership – insistently recommend having an alternative mechanism planned. to choose a new standard bearer, in case Machado is unable to participate.
The volume of this debate could increase as the weeks go by, especially within those organizations that Machado is not particularly fond of, such as Acción Democrástica, Un Nuevo Tiempo and part of Primero Justicia. One of them is Luis Vicente León, a well-known local political analyst and director of the polling firm Datanalisis, who has been analyzing the problem for some time.
León, who considers it impossible for Machado to compete in the election, explains that his support for this hypothetical new opposition standard bearer is essential, but it would not be enough either. León assures that the current level of support for Machado, close to 60% of the electoral universe, would fall by 20 percentage points in the event of a new name.
The opponent Sergio Garrido, of Democratic Action, current governor of the State of Barinas, alluded to the issue bluntly. “Our position has always been clear, we are not going to stop for María Corina Machado. We will choose a new candidate among all of us, so that he will be the president of all Venezuelans.” His words suggest that there may be people who share this view in his party.
Garrido was elected governor of Barinas in a controversial episode in which his name replaced the disqualified candidate, Freddy Superlano, to surprisingly defeat Chavismo in 2021. As on other occasions, Garrido invited the opposition leadership to follow the example of Barinas, Machado is now free to decline based on another name if necessary.
“The previous political environment and Maduro's attitude toward a candidate like Machado were already known,” says Elgée González Lobato, lawyer, political scientist and academic at the Central University of Venezuela. “There is an energy negotiation involved, the United States needs Venezuela and that is why it has given these concessions. The sanctions proposed by Washington are paid by citizens, the Chavista Government can live with that. The democratic leadership must seriously consider the possibility of choosing at some point an alternative candidate who can capitalize on the enormous discontent against Maduro, which is transversal throughout society.”
In the political command of María Corina Machado, the option of renouncing her candidacy or declining based on another simply does not exist as a possibility. The mandate that she has received in the past primaries is very clear, those close to her assure, and the political capital that she currently holds will not be frozen, nor delegated, nor shared, but rather exercised. He slogan of his campaign command has been and is “Until the end”, despite all the open questions about “how”.
“On this issue there is a shared vision, negotiation with Chavismo is what can lead us to a political solution,” says Julio Castillo, opposition politician, analyst and currently part of the political team that works with Machado. Castillo highlights that, despite Jorge Rodríguez's rudeness, political conversations remain open.
Part of the pending tasks in Machado's team is to expand its spectrum and influence in the negotiation instances of the Unitary Platform. The leader, however, already has a sufficiently wide range of commitments with an important part of the opposition. “I think the internal environment of the Platform at the moment is very positive. There is enormous loyalty in the parties, everyone is working for the new elected leadership, with the “600k” plan, the announced national network to defend the vote. María Corina will surely continue to do her campaign under other conditions. “I do not deny that the issue of repression will be a present element,” she adds.
Meanwhile, Chavismo continues doing its thing: doing everything on its terms. Next Monday, the meeting called by Jorge Rodríguez between Chavismo and some minority parties, formally opposition parties, broken off from the Unitary Platform and opposed to Machado, will take place at the Federal Legislative Palace to discuss this year's electoral schedule.
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