The United States is unable to change the situation in the Middle East, and with large-scale attacks on sovereign states it only worsens its reputation. Over the weekend, the US Air Force destroyed targets of pro-Iranian groups in three countries at once: Syria, Iraq and Yemen, promising to continue attacks. Tehran has so far limited itself to publicly condemning the actions. Izvestia looked into where the “red lines” are in this conflict and what the US intervention is leading to.
Three countries at the same time
The United States launched a series of massive strikes on three countries in the Middle East in a couple of days: Iraq, Syria and Yemen. On February 4, the US military hit another anti-ship missile that the Houthis from the Ansar Allah movement were preparing to launch in the territory under their control in Yemen. Earlier, local TV channel Al Masirah reported that the United States, together with Great Britain, carried out two series of attacks on movement positions in the capital Sanaa within 24 hours.
The Pentagon said in a statement that the military attacked 36 Houthi targets in 13 different locations with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and New Zealand. As a result, they allegedly managed to hit storage facilities containing weapons, missile launchers, air defense systems and radars. Houthi-controlled media called the strikes the “most brutal” ever. Military wing spokesman Yahya Saria said they “will not go unanswered and without consequences.”
The situation around the Red Sea, the most important trade route, has been heating up for the third month: the Iran-backed Ansar Allah movement, in protest against Israel's operation in the Gaza Strip, began to attack ships passing by from Yemen. To protect free navigation, Washington and London launched an active response as part of Operation Guardian of Prosperity. Gradually, the Houthis targeted mostly American and British ships, further raising tensions in the region. It is worth noting that the situation, despite the large-scale operation of the United States and Great Britain, has not yet changed: the Houthis continue to attack ships, and transport companies continue to change routes.
— Since 2015, when Saudi Arabia and the UAE sent troops into Yemen, missile and bomb air strikes against the Houthis have been carried out regularly, on a huge scale. And this did not lead to either a military or political defeat for the Houthis. Now, no matter how strong the US strikes may seem, they are not enough to shake the balance of power within the Yemeni conflict. Moreover, despite the attacks on infrastructure, the Houthis are strengthening their reputation both in Yemen and throughout the Arab world, Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
The series of strikes against Yemen comes in parallel with an unfolding “campaign of retaliation” for the killing of US military personnel. On January 28, an unidentified drone attacked the American base Tower 22 in Jordan. As a result, three soldiers were killed and more than 40 were injured. The American government is confident that the pro-Iranian umbrella group “Islamic Resistance of Iraq” is behind this. The Pentagon even claims that a specific group from this association, Kataib Hezbollah, was involved in the attack. The French Institute for Strategic Analysis think tank called it the closest to Iran of all the branches of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, since its members recognize Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, as their commander-in-chief. In addition, their former leader was the “right hand” of senior Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, commander-in-chief of one of the units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite force for special operations abroad. Both were killed in a US strike in 2020.
On the night of February 3, the US Air Force carried out airstrikes on more than 85 targets in Iraq and Syria associated with the IRGC. At least 16 people were killed on Iraqi soil, and about 30 on Syrian territory. As John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, said, “the targets were chosen to weaken and undermine the capabilities of the IRGC and the groups it finances and supports.” ” In addition, Washington promised to continue strikes.
Should we expect a large-scale conflict in the Middle East?
US actions on the territory of several Muslim countries at once increases the risk of escalation in the Middle East. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the strikes in Syria and Iraq demonstrated the aggressive nature of US policy in the region and disregard for international law.
— We strongly condemn the new blatant act of American-British aggression against sovereign states. We are seeking urgent consideration of the emerging situation through the UN Security Council,” commented official representative of the department Maria Zakharova.
Due to the fact that Iran is indirectly involved in both directions of the conflict, additional risks arise. Tehran may respond by resorting to active hostilities, but it is unknown where Iran's red lines are. So far, officials are limiting themselves to statements. The Iranian Foreign Ministry emphasized that US attacks on Iran, Syria and Yemen will further involve the American government in the affairs of the region. “The continuation of such adventures poses a threat to regional and international peace and security,” said department spokesman Nasser Kanaani.
— Iran has never announced any red lines in its foreign policy. We can only say that for him these could be strikes on Iranian territory. And this is out of the question now. Since the first strikes on Yemen and American bases in Syria and Iraq back in 2023, although the United States has publicly discussed the possibility of carrying out such strikes, no responsible political leader has allowed such an option. At least in the foreseeable future, says Grigory Lukyanov.
Last week, observers recorded the withdrawal of IRGC forces from Syrian targets. According to the expert, this means that Iran has moved to a “spray phase” to reduce the effect of US strikes. This also suggests that preparations for the offensive are also not being made. Tehran will not respond to attacks on the Houthis’ positions, since despite the foreign policy “propaganda” vision of the United States and Israel, Iran and the Houthis are not the same thing. In addition, the United States has chosen countries for attacks from which one cannot expect a full-scale response.
“It’s more of a controlled escalation.” The leadership of Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Syria one way or another had an understanding of the general direction of escalation. There is also the American-Iranian dynamic of relations, which has its own rules, although not written and barely tangible. In particular, neither Tehran nor Washington want direct strikes, says the scientific director of the Center for Foreign Policy Cooperation. E. M. Primakova Ruslan Mamedov.
Against the backdrop of general escalation in the Middle East, a number of internal regional processes are also intersecting. For example, in Iraq they want to achieve a complete withdrawal of American troops, and worsening relations with the United States can speed up this process. The expert emphasizes that all actions taken by the United States in the region are part of a global strategy to support Israel, whose conflict with Hamas has already extended beyond the Gaza Strip. And mutual blows are costs that have to be faced.
According to Grigory Lukyanov, the United States is also interested in saving face, and the strikes are designed to impress the p
ublic in the States. However, as Ruslan Mamedov notes, while the Americans are worsening their positions with their own hands, striking at sovereign states.
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