The Middle East conflict has never been more dangerous – but the solution is possible

Thousands dead from October 7th and the Gaza War: The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has never been worse – or more ripe for a solution.

• Attack on October 7th: Hamas should have protested non-violently, comment Prince El Hassan bin Talal of Jordan and Dr. Tony Klug in this article.
• Israel is showing itself to be vindictive: More hostages could have been freed during the war
• For a solution to the Middle East conflict: Israel must allow Palestinians to live in freedom and dignity, the authors demand.
• This article is available for the first time in German – the magazine first published it on January 26, 2024 Foreign policy.

Washington, DC – With the benefit of a long memory, we can confidently say that the situation in the history of the Palestinian-Israeli tragedy has never been as dire or dangerous as it is today. But never before has there been greater clarity about the essential components of a future peace settlement.

What's special about recent horrific events – the horrific Hamas attack on Israel that killed more than 1,100 people, and the ongoing, belligerent Israeli response to Gaza that left more than 25,000 Palestinians dead – is that they have reopened deep wounds for both peoples: for the Israeli Jews the Holocaust, for the Palestinians the Nakba, the “catastrophe”. Both peoples are in psychological turmoil, and emotions are exceptionally strong.

Attack on October 7th: Hamas should have protested nonviolently

When the guns finally fall silent, the reckoning will begin. The Hamas is currently enjoying some popularity among traumatized Palestinians, but will it ever be forgiven for the death and destruction it has recklessly – and almost certainly knowingly – caused? Caught off guard on October 7, 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have the country behind him in the pursuit of Hamas, but how long will he be able to stay the course once some semblance of normality is restored?

After decades of oppressive Israeli occupation, a seismic explosion was bound to happen sooner or later, but not necessarily in this form. Hamas could have instead replicated the largely nonviolent border protests it itself staged five years earlier, but this time with greater effect as it deftly thwarted Israel's electronic surveillance barriers. Had the Palestinians come unarmed in their thousands to explain rather than kill, their pleas for freedom and equality could have been immediately spread throughout the country and beyond, profoundly influencing the political climate in Israel and encouraging new political trends.

By instead choosing a violent path, Hamas immediately destroyed its long-term strategic goal of being accepted by the world's governments as a legitimate interlocutor in all discussions about the future. While the group may claim some tactical advantages, when the dust settles, October 7th will be viewed as a massive act of self-sabotage.

Israel appears vindictive: More hostages could have been freed in the Gaza war

In its vengeful knee-jerk reaction, the Israeli war cabinet also abandoned the strategy it had pursued for years Strengthening Hamas' rule in the Gaza Strip, to prevent the prospect of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip under unified leadership. The new goal of destroying every trace of Hamas was not the result of strict strategic considerations, but a spontaneous outburst by the supposed guardians of Israel's security.

The new goal is not just poorly thought out. It is also unattainable, although the Israeli leadership cannot be trusted to keep postponing the goal in order to be able to declare victory at some point. Rather than d
estroying Hamas, the relentless dismantling of the Gaza Strip and its captive residents will serve as a recruiting tool for the organization. This, in turn, is Israel's own act of self-sabotage.

Israel also had a choice. Given the new era in which the state had established formal relations with a growing number of Arab countries, a robust, inclusive, regional response might have been quickly developed. The result would almost certainly have been less destructive and more effective than Israel's unilateral military response. It might have prevented the deaths of thousands of people and led to the release of the Israeli and foreign hostages captured by Hamas on October 7.

For a solution to the Middle East conflict: Israel must allow Palestinians to live in freedom and dignity

Despite all this, the prospects for a new peace process rising from the ashes of current misery have, ironically, been improved by recent events, for two main reasons.

First, the widespread misconception that the Palestinians are a defeated people and that the Palestinian question can be ignored has been shown to be the nonsense that it always was. Second, the associated illusion that the conflict can be managed or contained has been shattered. He can't do that. It must be solved, otherwise there will be more explosions and the resulting toxins will continue to spill over into the rest of the world. There is no way to resolve this conflict without Israel fully ending its decades-long occupation of the West Bank and siege of the Gaza Strip so that Palestinians can exercise their right to self-determination and live in freedom and dignity.

Since the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, each seismic explosion of violence associated with the conflict has triggered steps toward peace, although in some cases they have ultimately failed: the 1967 war led to a steady evolution in Palestinian attitudes, to accept a Palestinian state alongside Israel and not in place of Israel; the 1973 war led to the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty six years later; the first intifada of 1987 culminated in the 1990s with the Oslo Accords, which were widely believed at the time to usher in a new era of peace based on two states; and the Second Intifada in 2000 was the catalyst for the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which offered Israel full recognition by all 22 members of the Arab League in return for Palestinian statehood in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Arab Middle East peace initiative urgently needs to be revived

When it comes to the future, there is no need to reinvent the wheel. Peace between sovereign states can only be achieved through a cooperative relationship between the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant. This is the only way to end the current nightmare of violence and brutality.

All the important prerequisites for such a solution and peace in the Middle East have been set out in the aforementioned Arab Peace Initiative, which is also supported by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. It urgently needs to be revived – and if necessary revised – and vigorously promoted from the region to the Israeli and Palestinian populations, both of whom need credible assurances of their security and acceptance in the region that is ultimately their homeland after October 7th.

We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.

This article was first published in English on January 26, 2024 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com“ was published – as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.