Donald Trump has achieved a clear victory, but he has not swept. The former president of the United States has defeated the former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, in the New Hampshire primary this Tuesday. The victory puts Trump's nomination back on track for the November presidential election, but it was not enough to knock out Haley, who is reluctant to throw in the towel. Participation has been very high in the Republican primaries. In the Democrats, which Joe Biden has won, not so much.
1. Trump wins, but does not sweep
The former president prevailed in the caucus of Iowa by more than 30 points to both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. On the other hand, his victory in the New Hampshire primary, where he only faced Haley, was much narrower, despite the fact that both Vivek Ramaswamy and DeSantis had requested the vote for him. Trump wins, but does not sweep, and, therefore, fails to knock out his rival. Still, every candidate who has won Iowa and New Hampshire consecutively in the last half century has won the nomination. “When you win Iowa and you win New Hampshire, there has never been a defeat, so we are not going to be the first, I assure you,” Trump said this Tuesday.
Trump, furthermore, has swept the bases of his party, which makes his presidential nomination almost certain, although it takes a little longer to confirm. However, the former president was angry at having to continue competing. “Let's not let someone take a victory when she had a very bad night,” Trump insisted. “She's giving a speech like she won. She hasn't won. “She lost,” he continued, adding: “Just a little note for Nikki: she is not going to win.”
2. Nikki Haley resists and goes on the attack
The former ambassador to the UN and former governor of South Carolina has been defeated by Donald Trump in New Hampshire, but will continue to fight. Haley challenges Trump to a long battle for the nomination. “New Hampshire is the first State [en celebrar primarias] of the nation. He is not the last. This race is far from over, there are dozens of states ahead and next up is my sweet state of South Carolina,” he said Tuesday in a speech in Concord, the state capital. “South Carolina voters don't want a coronation. “They want elections and we are going to have them because we are only getting started,” he added.
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New Hampshire is where Nikki Haley had the best prospects. But if he has not been able to win in this relatively moderate state, where he had the enthusiastic support of the governor and where independent voters had the possibility of participating in the Republican primaries, it will be much more difficult for him in the rest of the country. Even so, she took advantage of her speech to attack Trump.
3. The role of independents
The New Hampshire primary is special because undeclared voters, meaning those who are not registered as either Republicans or Democrats, can choose to vote in either party's primary. It also happens in other States, but not in the majority. The exit polls for this Tuesday's primaries show an absolute contrast between the support that Trump has received from voters registered as Republicans and from those who do not belong to any party, who are called independents, and who They have turned to Haley. Trump did especially well in the most conservative parts of the state, while Haley won in the most progressive parts. Haley only led Trump in Democratic-leaning cities and towns such as Concord, Keene and Portsmouth. The high participation of independents has supported the candidate and has allowed her to obtain a somewhat better result than the polls predicted. Trump's weakness among moderates and centrists is a concern for his campaign with its sights set on the November presidential elections.
4. Biden wins easily
This Tuesday there were not only Republican primaries in New Hampshire, but also Democrats, although with a lower profile. The president, Joe Biden, has won without problems, without participating in a single campaign event and without even appearing on the ballots due to a fight by the Democratic Party to have the New Hampshire vote delayed in the primary calendar. Despite not appearing on the ballots, citizens could vote for him by writing his name in the blank box reserved for it. In 2020, Biden achieved the Democratic nomination despite placing fifth in New Hampshire with only 8.4% of the vote. This time, with the advantage of being the tenant of the White House and without major rivals, he has clearly won, although the counting has been delayed due to the manual processing of the ballots. Everything points, therefore, to a repeat of the 2020 elections: Biden against Trump.
5. The road ahead
In recent days, Donald Trump predicted Nikki Haley's withdrawal after the New Hampshire primary, but the candidate refuses to throw in the towel. What lies ahead is not easy for her. She did not register in the caucus from Nevada, so Trump will take all the delegates there on February 8. After Nevada, on February 24 will come the primaries in South Carolina, Haley's home state, but in which the former president has solid support and is the clear favorite in voting intention. How the polls evolve there, first, and the results, later, will depend on whether the race towards the nomination remains open on March 5, Super Tuesday, when 16 States vote, including California and Texas, the two most populated, and are awarded more than a third of the delegates who will choose the candidate at the Republican convention in July.
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