The United States primary elections begin in New Hampshire. This Tuesday, January 23, citizens vote in a process to define the candidate of the Republican Party, a dispute now between the former US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, and former president Donald Trump, after the governor of Florida Ron DeSantis will withdraw from the race. Democrats are also voting this Tuesday in that state, but after a change in their calendar to make South Carolina their first official contest, these elections will only serve as a barometer of support and the winner of the progressives will not receive any delegates there.
Starting shot in the race to the White House. Republicans and Democrats measure the electoral thermometer this Tuesday, January 23 in New Hampshire.
Although the conservatives held the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire, as required by legislation, must be the first state where the parties begin their primary elections every four years, in a process that determines the candidate of each party for the November presidential elections. .
Although citizens do not directly elect their candidate, on the Republican side the battle is now reduced to two candidates: the former ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, and the controversial former president Donald Trump, after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race last Sunday, January 21 after the Iowa caucuses.
For the conservative bench, 22 delegates to the Republican National Convention are at stake. That is, the total of votes this Tuesday will determine how many delegates each pre-candidate will receive for that state, at the party meeting that will take place in July. The polls are scheduled to close this January 23 at 7:00 p.m. local time.
Although a small fraction compared to the 1,215 delegates needed to win the party's nomination, the state in the northeast of the country has traditionally played a key role due to its early position on the calendar.
Haley is trying to show that her candidacy is still viable against the favorite, Trump. Especially after the former president obtained a resounding victory in the first measurement among Republicans, in Iowa, where he received 51% of the votes, almost 30 points more than the candidate in second position, DeSantis, who finally announced his support for the tycoon. real estate developer turned politician.
In New Hampshire, Haley seeks to win the female vote and intensifies her criticism against Trump, denouncing the former head of state's affinity with figures such as the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un.
Haley also attacked the age and mental acuity of the former president, attacks that she also regularly directs at the current president Joe Biden, who aspires to a new candidacy for the Democratic Party that will lead him to re-election.
Democratic primaries in New Hampshire: a symbolic election
The party that currently leads the White House also holds primary elections this Tuesday. Or better yet, New Hampshire has decided to go ahead with those elections, which the political movement has indicated will not count for its nomination process.
On the side of the progressive bench 33 delegates will be sent to the Democratic National Convention from New Hampshire, but their vote will not be subject to the results of the primary. That is to say, the votes on January 23 there will only serve as a barometer of support for the party currently in the Executive, facing the presidential elections in ten months.
The reason? The Democratic Party decided to move its first race of 2024 to South Carolina, which will be held on February 3, highlighting that it is a significantly more diverse state than predominantly white New Hampshire, to better reflect the party. A push toward a more comfortable victory for Biden, in a more moderate and racially diverse state than Iowa.
However, New Hampshire law requires it to host the first primary and the Republican-controlled state government refused to make any legislative changes to the date of the primary, so it decided to move forward with the race.
Due to this same dispute, Biden does not appear on the ballot. The main Democratic candidates to appear in these elections in the northeastern state of the country are: Representative Dean Phillips, of Minnesota, and the author of self-help books, such as 'Return to Love' or 'Light for the Path', Marianne Williamson.
Why are the New Hampshire primaries important?
On the Republican side, most political analysts agree that New Hampshire represents Haley's best chance of achieving victory, or at least a close second place.
If the political leader – who became South Carolina's first female governor in 2010 – fails to strongly challenge Trump, the former president could emerge as the likely Republican candidate to face Biden in the November general election.
If Haley does well there, she will likely retain enough donors and voters interested in rallying behind her in the coming weeks to mount a serious challenge to Donald Trump.
But even winning New Hampshire, the former U.N. ambassador faces an uphill battle. The former president leads her by about 36 percentage points in South Carolina, despite it being Haley's home state, where the next big nominating contest will take place in late February. And nationally, Trump has a 37-point lead, according to the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.
As for Democrats, New Hampshire represents an opportunity for Biden's rivals in the internal race to demonstrate their chances of replacing the president on the party's ticket.
Biden focuses on South Carolina, as it is home to the first contest fully endorsed by his party, a state that helped him secure his party's nomination for the last 2020 elections.
With Reuters, AP and local media
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