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Although it is still early to know for sure, the weather forecasts are not encouraging at all, since the El Niño phenomenon can last until July and that will cause the high temperatures in the Pacific Ocean to continue and, with it, the heat. increase in several regions of the world.
This could be the first year in which every month averages 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. At least This is predicted by the United Kingdom Meteorological Service. That office estimates that the temperature increase in 2024 may be between 1.34 °C and 1.58 °C, with an average of 1.46 °C.
If that holds true, they would be higher temperatures than those of 2023 and 2016, the hottest years on record. And these two years share a characteristic: the El Niño phenomenon, which will also be present for at least half of 2024. This climatic event causes the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean to rise and, with it, thermometers also increase in regions of the world such as America and Europe.
“The forecast is aligned with the current global warming trend of 0.2°C per decade and is driven by a major El Niño event. Therefore, we expect two new consecutive years of record global temperatures and, for the first time, we predict a reasonable probability of a year temporarily exceeding 1.5 ° C,” explains the British Meteorological Service forecast.
All this increase in temperatures contributes to making climates more extreme and this directly affects food. Although the food industry also depends on what happens with the economy and armed conflicts, the climate is another determining factor, as warns him the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Wine, rice and sugar are some of the products affected by the climate
This was also evidenced by extreme climate changes in 2023. Floods in Italy and prolonged drought in Spain largely contributed to global wine production last year being the lowest in 60 years, according to the International Organization of Vine and Wine.
High temperatures also caused olive oil production in the Spanish community of Andalusia to be 40% below average, according to the Department of agriculture; something that affects globally since Spain is the largest producer of this oil and 70% of the entire harvest is planted in Andalusia.
Furthermore, due to excessive heat, fell in half the production of blueberries in Peru, the largest exporter of this fruit; and Argentina had its worst soybean harvest in more than two decades due to drought.
The consequences were also felt in Asia. India and Thailand, the largest sugar exporters along with Brazil, estimate that their production may fall between 7% and 40% amid the El Niño phenomenon.
This phenomenon also affects rice crops. “It could disrupt food production in many parts of the world, as warming Pacific waters contribute to drier conditions in some regions (including major rice-producing countries in Asia) and heavy rainfall and damaging flooding in others. “The impacts on the market will depend on the strength and duration of El Niño, as well as the political responses of the countries,” he explained. the International Food Policy Research Institute.
In this context, since July 2023, India prohibited the export of non-basmati white rice due to high international demand. “This strong increase in exports can be attributed to high international prices due to the geopolitical scenario, the impacts of El Niño and extreme weather conditions in other rice-producing countries,” the Indian Government asserted.
The ban is not minor since India is the largest exporter of rice in the world, responsible for 40% of the trade in that food.
The world meteorological authority confirmed that 2023 was the hottest
It is no coincidence that so many crops have been lost in 2023. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed this week what it had already predicted a month ago: Last year was the hottest on record.
After consolidating data from six climate offices around the world, the WMO said the average global temperature in 2023 was 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels. To give you an idea, 2016, which had been the hottest on record up to that point, had an average of 1.29°C.
And all this occurred despite the fact that last year there were several months of a climatic event that cooled the waters of the Pacific. “The transition from the cooling of La Niña to the warming of El Niño by mid-2023 is clearly reflected in the increase in temperature compared to last year. Since El Niño typically has the biggest impact on global temperatures after peaking, 2024 could be even hotter,” said Celeste Saulo, the secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization.
In other words, as UN Secretary General António Guterres maintains, humans are burning the planet.
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