ZAt the start of this year's World Economic Forum in Davos, Ukraine is the focus of attention. Before the official start of the event, security advisors from 83 countries met at the invitation of Switzerland and Ukraine to discuss a ten-point plan from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Switzerland is clearly trying to play a mediating role, but so far there are no signs that Russia will take part in the process. The talks in Davos also proved difficult on Sunday. Some of Kiev's demands, such as Russia's withdrawal from the occupied territories, are considered unacceptable for Moscow. Ukraine, for its part, is not prepared to accept a mere ceasefire. Referring to Zelensky, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Andriy Yermak, said: “This president and his team will never accept a freeze in the conflict.”
On Tuesday, Zelenskyj, who had previously been in Bern for talks, will travel to Davos himself. There are hopes in Graubünden that the Chinese might be able to persuade Russia to take part in a diplomatic process. Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang is also coming to Davos this year; Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected as the highest-ranking participant from the United States. As was the case last year, Russia is not represented in Davos.
Geopolitical fragmentation is increasing
Research published by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with the American consultancy McKinsey identified an increase in international cooperation as important for the resilience and growth of the global economy as well as global security. A sentence in a study published on Monday by the Forum on Geopolitics shows how much the former idea that an order based on liberal principles guarantees security is a thing of the past: “It must begin with the realization that, at least in the short and medium term, there is mistrust is an integral part of geopolitical reality.”
The outlook published on Monday by around 60 chief economists from companies and organizations was rather cautious about the prospects for the global economy. A slim majority of them expects economic weakness this year, which they attribute primarily to geopolitical and social tensions and the effects of high interest rates. They predict an increase in geopolitical fragmentation, which is likely to manifest itself in increasing fluctuations in economic growth and stock prices
Artificial intelligence is intended to increase efficiency
Geopolitical fragmentation should support the formation of political blocs and a bias toward local value creation. Conflicts of objectives would arise between maintaining financial stability and building “national champions” in sectors of the economy that are viewed as strategically important. In addition, a majority of economists believe that an increase in tensions between poor and rich countries is likely. The “golden times” of the global economy appear to be a thing of the past in the long term.
However, economists also see reasons for optimism with the decline in the inflation rate and advances in artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence should contribute to greater efficiency in economic activity, accelerate innovation and thus help increase living standards. However, it is said that artificial intelligence is also likely to arouse mistrust among many people.
Broken down by region, the economic prospects are particularly good in the south and east of Asia, with the exception of the People's Republic of China. A majority of chief economists predict moderate economic growth for the United States, the Middle East and North Africa. At the bottom is Europe, for which 77 percent of economists forecast “weak or very weak” economic growth.
More managers are optimistic about the future
As was the case last year, however, the warnings spread at the Davos Forum about impending gloom in the world stand in striking contrast to the perception of the economic elite. According to an international survey by the French consulting company Capgemini, more managers of large companies are starting the new year with optimism this year than in 2023. According to this study, for which 2,000 managers were surveyed, 56 percent of managers expressed confidence despite the difficult overall economic environment the growth prospects of their companies, although they are well aware of the global political and economic risks.
In Germany, the proportion of optimistic assessments was at least 52 percent. “83 percent of managers intend to invest more in digital tools and technologies in the next 12 to 18 months – especially in AI as a driver for innovation and sales growth,” says the study. In addition to geopolitics, artificial intelligence is one of the outstanding topics at the World Economic Forum this year.
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