A Russian attack on NATO in phase 2 of the war. It is the scenario that Germany does not discard and, indeed, illustrates in a secret document released by Bild. While Ukraine aims for a highest-level summit on its peace plan, with President Volodymyr Zelensky currently in Davos, Russian President Vladimir Putin could move in the opposite direction, with a planned escalation referred to in an armed forces response plan developed by the German Ministry of Defense. In the document, the hypothesis of a hybrid attack is contemplated that Moscow could prepare a hybrid attack on NATO.
In the classified file, the German Defense Ministry outlines in detail the potential “Road to Conflict” between Russia and the Western defense alliance. Month after month, both Russian and Western actions are described. Among other things, the Bundeswehr – which brings together the armed forces of the federal republic of Germany – plans to mobilize hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers.
The escalation
Russia wants to call up another 200,000 men to launch a new offensive against Ukraine starting in the spring. In the summer months, Moscow would then begin – according to these scenarios – increasingly open attacks against the West, starting with serious cyber attacks.
The large-scale maneuver with 50 thousand soldiers in western Russia and Belarus is scheduled to begin in September. At the end of the year, there would be a Russian invasion of areas of eastern Ukraine, after which NATO would deploy around 300,000 troops on Ukraine's eastern flank.
Berlin's Defense Ministry declined to comment. “Basically, I can tell you that the evaluation of different – even extremely unlikely – scenarios is part of daily military activity, especially in training,” a spokesperson told Bild.
Last week, Swedish security experts had warned of the danger of war with Russia. “Many have said it before me, but let me say it by virtue of my office: There could be a war in Sweden,” said Carl-Oskar Bohlin, Sweden's civil protection minister. “Everyone must prepare for the worst-case scenario, such as a war with Russia, before it is too late,” he added.
Moscow's response
The Kremlin says it does not want to comment on the Bild article according to which Germany is evaluating the scenario of a possible conflict between Russia and NATO. “I will not comment on this Bild news,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in statements reported by the Russian Tass agency. “Recently – he also accused – this newspaper has often stooped to publishing various fake news and lies.” The issue was resolved in a few words, reported by Tass itself, by the Moscow Foreign Ministry. For spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, it is “the horoscope of the past year”.
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