The courts are already part of Donald Trump's campaign strategy. The former president of the United States voluntarily attended two hearings this past week in Washington and New York, in order to present himself as a martyr to the most loyal Republican voters — those participating in the primaries.
In Washington, his lawyer argued that the former president should enjoy immunity even if he ordered a special forces commando to assassinate a political rival. Trump — charged with 91 crimes in four different cases — has not been accused of killing anyone. However, he does have a killer instinct when it comes to politics.
The race for the Republican Party's nomination for the 2024 presidential election officially begins on Monday in a frigid Iowa. Trump's goal is to knock out his rivals before any viable alternative is perceived. And he's a formidable rival. Like a schoolyard bully, he enjoys insulting and ridiculing his opponents. When he saw Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as a threat several months ago, he attacked him mercilessly. Now, his darts are directed at his former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, in light of her upward trajectory.
One of his favorite hobbies is giving his rivals nicknames (to Wikipedia page compiles them). For Trump, the Florida governor is “Ron DeSanctus” or “Ron DeSanctimonious.” Meanwhile, the former South Carolina governor is “Birdbrain.” The candidate tweeted that some of his supporters had left a cage and birdseed at her hotel. He also aired the latest “birther” hoax — which he previously used against Barack Obama — which falsely states that, as Haley's parents were not born in the United States, she should be prevented from becoming president.
After the withdrawal of Chris Christie — who claimed not to want to divide the anti-Trump vote — the filed in the Iowa caucuses (a somewhat assembly-based primary, although votes are still secret) are less crowded than anticipated. Others who dropped out along the way were Miami Mayor Francis Suárez, former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott and Governor Doug Burgum. Aside from DeSantis and Haley, the other candidate — who is barely polling in single digits — is the millennial Trumpist Vivek Ramaswamy. In any case, Trump's lead in the polls is enormous.
Among Republican voters throughout the United States, 60.4% intend to vote for Trump, compared to 12.1% for DeSantis, 11.7% for Haley and 4.3% for Ramaswamy. This is according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. In Iowa, his advantage is smaller, but still vast: he stands at 51.3% in the latest tracking, compared to Haley's 17.3%. 16.1% intend to support DeSantis, while 6.6% say they're for Ramaswamy.
In the rural and conservative state of 3.2 million inhabitants, the most active Republican voters will meet on Monday from 7:00 pm CST onwards to elect the 40 delegates that Iowa contributes to the convention that will designate the Republican Party's presidential candidate in July.
The 40 delegates are distributed proportionally to the total vote of each candidate. Their weight in the total of almost 2,500 delegates at the convention is minimal (1.6%), but Iowa's influence is much greater, as it's the first state to vote. It offers momentum to a winning campaign, along with additional funding and media coverage. For this reason, the candidates have been traveling to Iowa for months and mingling with the inhabitants of this enormous corn producer, stopping by state fairs and all kinds of political events. Without the Iowa caucuses, it's possible that neither Jimmy Carter nor Barack Obama would have become president.
“Iowa votes first, and nomination campaigns develop sequentially, moving from one state to another. This sequential election process has important implications for who wins and who loses in the end,” argue political science professors David Redlawsk, Caroline Tolbert and Todd Donovan in their book Why Iowa? (2010).
At the same time, caucuses aren't infallible. Since George W. Bush won Iowa in 2000, no winner in a competitive Republican field has reached the nomination. Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz won Iowa in 2008, 2012 and 2016 respectively, but the nominees ended up being John McCain, Mitt Romney and Donald Trump. Trump came second in the 2016 caucuses, with 24% of the vote, compared to 28% for Ted Cruz.
The Democrats will also hold caucuses and assemblies this Monday, but their voting process allows votes by mail and is open until March. Hence, all the attention is on the Republican side. About 750,000 registered Republican voters are eligible to vote. In 2016, when the record was broken, there were only 187,000 votes cast. A 20% turnout is usually the norm, but with snow-covered Iowa, expected temperatures of 28 degrees below zero and a predictable outcome, there's the possibility that more people will stay home.
Trump and other candidates have made their latest campaign events virtual due to the difficulty of traveling in the icy weather. Since the beginning, the former president has spent far fewer days campaigning in the state than his main rivals. DeSantis has visited all 99 counties in the state, while Ramaswamy has visited them all twice. According to the Des Moines Register's candidate tracker, Trump has held 25 public events in the state since March, while DeSantis has held more than 125, Haley 79 and Ramaswamy more than 300.
Iowa is a state that has a large white majority and a relatively conservative population. Evangelical Christians have decisive weight. Despite Trump's amorality, the Evangelical vote was key to bringing him to the White House eight years ago. Kristin Kobes du Mez — author of Jesus and John Wayne: How White Evangelicals Corrupted a Faith and Fractured a Nation (2020) — explains that Evangelicalism embraces a “militant masculinity, an ideology that enshrines patriarchal authority and condones the callous display of power.” She drew a parallel between Trump and actor John Wayne, “an icon of rugged American manhood for generations of conservatives,” who gained a following as a figure of “Christian masculinity” with his “toughness and swagger.”
This time, Trump is doubling down. He's released a video called God Made Trump, in which the voice of a famous deceased announcer — recreated with artificial intelligence — presents Trump as a true messiah sent directly by God to save the United States. The video — with biblical-sounding language — has offended several Evangelical pastors in Iowa.
Trump is campaigning as if he were a sitting president. He hasn't participated in the candidate debates. Last week, while Haley and DeSantis were at each other's throats on CNN, he appeared in a gentle interview on Fox News, in which he tried to soften his message by disavowing his own words. If he returns to the White House, he said, he won't be a dictator, nor will he dedicate his presidency to revenge — although not for lack of desire, but for lack of time, as he explained. About 4.6 million viewers watched the softball interview, compared to 2.6 million who tuned in to the debate.
The former president is seeking a clear victory among his own, before any doubts arise about whether he'll ultimately be able to win the presidential elections, where moderates and independents tip the bala
nce. The calendar of the primaries, however, will prevent him from closing the debate soon. After Iowa comes the New Hampshire primary, on January 23, where Haley has substantial support. Still, this state only elects 22 delegates. In February, a trickle of caucuses (Nevada) and primaries (the Virgin Islands, South Carolina and Michigan) will precede the huge number of states that will vote on Super Tuesday in March.
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