“New Russian drones are a problem for Ukraine”

Drones shape the Ukraine war. In an interview, expert Ulrike Franke explains which developments surprised her and which ones can be expected next.

Ms. Franke, as someone who observed the development of military drones long before the Russian war against Ukraine – what surprised you about this war last year?

There are two things in particular: The first thing that's really striking, and what I didn't expect, is the sheer number of drones being used in this war. We are now talking about tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of drones. Ukraine also just said it plans to produce a million units this year – and reportedly has around 70 different systems in use. These are incredible numbers – and to put them in context: The Bundeswehr currently has eight different drone systems, and none of them have more than a small three-digit number. Russia went into this war with only a few drones, things have changed now. The second interesting aspect is that small drones in particular play an important role, often including those that come from the civilian sector. Here we see that technology has evolved from the military to the civilian sector and then back to the battlefield.

A shot of 155-millimeter artillery ammunition starts at around 3,000 euros, which is more than a small drone like those used in Ukraine costs.

Yes, but many small drones also end up costing a lot. That's why I think cost is just one reason. If the larger drones like those from the Turkish manufacturer Bayraktar had prevailed, they would be used more widely. But they don't have that in this conflict. Small, easy-to-manufacture drones dominate here. But: Things can change again; the large drones could be more relevant again in another conflict.

When it comes to drones, the focus is usually on the upside, but Ukraine also seems to be driving forward the development of maritime drones. Do they play a big role?

The development of maritime drone technology is also something that many people did not have an eye on. It's not a particularly big issue yet, but it's going to get bigger, worldwide, that's what we're seeing in Ukraine. After all, this is the first time that maritime drones have been used in a war on this scale. They destroy Russian warships and cause significant damage. Maritime drones are also likely to play a role in the Red Sea – the Houthis have used such systems in the past. And in a possible confrontation between the USA and China, maritime technologies would generally be very important. Similar to drones in the air, this shows that small and relatively cheap weapons can make very large and expensive technology vulnerable.

Russia bombed Ukraine several times with entire groups of drones around the turn of the year. Are we now seeing the use of swarms of drones?

It's safe to say that this will happen. Drone swarms will play a larger role. At the moment they are mainly used to saturate and penetrate defense systems because Ukraine is very good at intercepting individual drones or missiles. At the moment, “swarm” usually just means a mass of drones. Real swarms are formations in which individual drones can communicate with each other and share or hand over tasks. But that too is coming.

The Russian army claims that it is already doing exactly that with the Lancet-3, using artificial intelligence.

Artificial intelligence for situational awareness or image analysis, and also in the area of ​​autonomy, is in use in Ukraine, yes, also on the Ukrainian side. It is difficult to verify to what extent the Lancet-3 is actually fully autonomous thanks to AI. But the Lancet drones are actually a problem for Ukraine. Obviously, Russia has developed certain capabilities. If you invest 30 percent of your national budget in the war, something will come out of it. But that also means for us that we can't rest either. According to the motto, the Ukrainians are capable of innovation, are strong and have Western help and that's why none of this is a problem. The Russians have not only followed suit, but depending on the area they are stronger, f
or example in electronic warfare.

Both Ukraine and Russia are learning and developing their weapons and defense technology extremely quickly. Do you have the impression that Western states and Western defense companies are learning with the same intensity?

That's difficult to answer. Ukraine is in an existential struggle, it has a different motivation. From discussions with Western industry, I don't get the impression that the motivation is similar; there is less happening than one might think. It's not as if the European defense industry has developed tons of new drone systems in the last two years.

Ulrike Franke is a Senior Political Fellow at the renowned think tank European Council on Foreign Relations. Her specialty is new technologies in warfare such as drones and artificial intelligence.