Europe's liberals are struggling to find a common course

The Liberals are resisting the threat of losses in the European elections and a strengthening of anti-Europeans. But they disagree on many points.

Stéphane Séjourné chooses clear words: “The risk of an ungovernable Europe is real,” warns the leader of the liberal Renew group in the European Parliament on Tuesday. Populists and right-wing radical parties could win enough seats in the European elections in June to prevent a viable alliance of pro-European forces. The continuation of the so-called Von der Leyen coalition made up of the EPP, Social Democrats and Liberals that he is aiming for is not guaranteed, he warns.

Séjourné's Renew faction could itself be one of the big losers of a possible shift to the right. EU-wide evaluations of surveys predict six months before the election that the Liberals could lose ten to 20 of their current 101 seats. Both the far-right ID faction and the national-conservative EKR could possibly overtake the third-largest group in the Strasbourg parliament to date.

Own candidates for Commission, Council and Parliament

But the European election campaign hasn't even started yet. In order to prepare the party family for the coming months and a decidedly pro-European line, Séjourné invited the top candidates from several member states to a major event in Brussels on Tuesday. However, the election manifesto and the personnel line-up for the top jobs to be awarded at EU level will probably only be decided a week before Easter, when ALDE, the larger of the two liberal party families, invites you to the congress in Brussels.

Séjourné advocates a self-confident demeanor: The Liberals should put forward their own candidates for the three most important positions, the heads of the EU Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament, he says. You have personalities with the necessary format.

Michel doesn't inspire enthusiasm

Among the Liberals, the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, the former Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel and the outgoing Council President Charles Michel are considered interested parties. Commission Vice President Margrethe Vestager, who was the star of the top team for the European elections in 2019, will probably no longer play a significant role, says a well-informed Liberal.

Michel announced his candidacy for the European Parliament at the weekend and thereby brought movement into the personnel poker. However, the former Belgian prime minister probably cannot count on much sympathy in his own camp if he puts himself in position for one of the top jobs again. However, his announcement increases the pressure on Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to comment on a possible second term in office.

Liberal parties are on the defensive in many places

The environment for the Liberals is anything but easy: the member parties are weakening in many countries, not just in Germany. In France, Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National is clearly overshadowing President Emmanuel Macron's party in European election polls. It remains to be seen whether the appointment of Séjourné's partner Gabriel Attal as the new Prime Minister will bring new impetus to the Macron camp. In Spain, the Ciudadanos party, which currently has six MPs, has collapsed. In the Netherlands and the northern European member states, the liberal parties are currently not doing particularly well.

But Séjourné is combative. He refers, for example, to the success of the Polska 2050 party, which is part of the new Polish government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Liberal forces also gained strength in Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria. Séjourné says he is optimistic about getting enough seats to continue playing the role of “kingmaker” alongside the EPP and S&D.

To do this, the Liberals also need successes in the populous member states. The FDP is relying on the traction of its candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, who is attracting a lot of attention through her pointed positions. During her appearance in Brussels, Strack-Zimmermann criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his blockade of support for Ukr
aine.

Italy: Parties cannot agree

In Italy, Renew is currently almost empty with only two MPs. Former Italian Secretary of State for European Affairs Sandro Gozi is urging the three liberal parties in Rome to agree on an electoral list. “Many voters want a common list, but it is a question of personalities,” he told Table.Media. An alliance between former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva and the other two parties could win eight to nine seats, believes the MP who sits in the European Parliament for Macron's Renaissance list.

Séjourné also wants to poach within the Christian Democratic party family, especially if EPP leader Manfred Weber deepens cooperation with the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformers (ECR) group after the election. He thinks this could persuade some delegations in the EPP group to join Renew.

No three-way alliance with EVP and EKR

For his group, Séjourné rules out formalized cooperation in a three-way alliance with the EPP and ECR, “even if we had a majority”. In order to be considered as a partner, the group around Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia must first “get its house in order”, i.e. throw out particularly problematic members. How compatible the EKR is will become apparent in the upcoming vote on the asylum and migration pact in a few weeks.

Séjourné also does not want to tolerate any collaboration with extremists in his own camp. Should Mark Rutte's liberal VVD form a government in the Netherlands with election winner Geert Wilders, the parliamentary group leader would have to draw conclusions. But the latest signals from the VVD do not indicate that cooperation will take place in the foreseeable future, according to the Renew group.