Confidence in the Meloni government collapses: in one year I lost 13 points

Election political polls today 9 January 2024

ELECTION POLITICAL POLLS – Fratelli d'Italia continues to lead in the polls but confidence in the government is collapsing. This is what emerges from the first Tecnè survey of 2024 which, compared to a year ago, records a drop in Italians' trust in the executive of more than 13 points. Since January 2023 the figure has in fact gone from 54.6 to 41.3 percent.

In the same period, Giorgia Meloni's party lost 2.2 percentage points, while maintaining a wide gap on the Democratic Party, which rose to 19 percent. Despite the sharply rising figure (+3.6%), there are almost 10 points that divide Elly Schlein's party from FdI's 28.8 percent. In third place was the 5 Star Movement, which lost 1 percentage point in one year and fell to 16.5 percent, while Forza Italia, with 9.4 percent (+1.7%), overtook the League (-0 .7%), to 8.3 percent. Followed by Action, at 3.8 percent (-0.1%), the Greens/Left Alliance, at 3.5 percent (+0.1%) and Italia viva at 3 percent (-0.8%).

HOW POLLS ARE DONE

Electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling companies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to interview that is sufficiently large and representative of the population they intend to analyse. In the case of surveys on party voting intentions or the confidence index of political leaders, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.

Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the margin of error indicated is 3 percent with a confidence interval of 95 percent. The greatest difficulty for pollsters is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population. Interviews for electoral political surveys are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.