In less than a month, the new Argentine president, Javier Milei, promoted hundreds of measures that he believes are necessary to rebuild a century “of decline.” In his ideology, Argentina can “return to being” a “thriving” country if it applies its ultraliberal recipe “with shock and without gradualism.” But the viability of Milei's plan to dismantle the Argentine State depends, in principle, on a bill with more than 600 articles being, at a minimum, discussed in Congress, where legislators will have to address a varied package of hundreds of pages in extraordinary sessions. It also depends on whether a megadecree with more than 300 derogations and regulatory changes is not rejected in Parliament or stopped by justice, as is already happening in some courts that do not see the “need” and “urgency” of certain measures. The lack of priorities in the Government's strategy could end up weakening the far-right.
Milei has opened many fronts, all at once, to dismantle the State and fundamentally change a good part of the political, social and economic structure of Argentina. The day he assumed power, on December 10, he made it his priority to reduce inflation that in November exceeded 160% year-on-year and warned that he would do so with a cut of 20 billion dollars in the public sector. The measures that she announced as soon as she arrived at the Casa Rosada, however, address a much broader variety of issues. They propose everything from a reform of the political system to the “unlimited” resale of tickets to sporting events; They enable the privatization of state companies and limit the right to strike. And there's even more on the way, she announced.
Many of the reforms are included in the decree of necessity and urgency that Milei signed on December 20 and came into force eight days later. The labor reform included there was suspended by two court rulings, but the rest of the points now govern as laws, as long as Congress does not reject the megadecree or the justice system does not dictate new precautionary measures in the face of criticism for unconstitutionality. The Government already anticipates that the process will be long. Other measures are included in the bill that Milei sent to Congress a week later and which has another route. This must be dealt with, like any law, in Parliament. But the package is so broad and extensive that no sector of the opposition has offered its full support because, among other reasons, it delegates extraordinary powers to the Executive.
The Government, however, is confident that its program “will move forward.” “The games don't end until the final whistle,” Milei said after the first stop to her strategy in court. Although she also warned that “two thirds” of the consequences of her program will only be seen “in 15 years.” “Your children and grandchildren are going to live wonderfully well,” she explained to the journalist who was interviewing him on the radio.
“Milei is encountering one obstacle after another because his team does not have State management experience. The Government may have good ideas, but if it cannot implement them, they are part of the imagination,” says Gabriela Ippolito-O'Donnell, doctor in Political Science from the University of Cambridge and professor at the University of San Martín. Ippolito-O'Donnell observes “a lot of improvisation” in the Government team: “everything is getting bogged down because her people don't know what to do.” “The market recipe is easy. But modern states are more complex than that,” she warns. The political scientist believes that the success or failure of the plan will depend on the pressure exerted by the “different affected groups” in Congress, in justice or on the street.
To the brakes that the courts have already begun to put in place – Milei's team said it will appeal – this week was added the questioning of a group of governors of Patagonia, from different parties, who considered that the reform proposed by the bill on the regulations that govern fishing activity “seriously affects the national economy and the development” of that sector. This Thursday, the Minister of the Interior, Guillermo Francos, met with one of those governors and with the mayor of a coastal town and the result was a statement from the Government in which it promised to “clarify some points” of the law. Perhaps this way, point by point, the negotiation will advance.
Minister Francos, a traditional and moderate politician, represents the most dialogue wing within Milei's Cabinet. In that sense, he contrasts with Milei, who states that those who are not “in favor of freedom,” that is, with him and his government, are on the side of the “impoverishing model.” “The dialogue is always open,” Presidency spokesman Manuel Adorni clarified to a journalist who this Friday asked him if the meeting between the governors and Francos inaugurated “a new stage” to “accept more changes to the law.” Immediately after exposing the Government's willingness to negotiate, Adorni settled: “Which does not mean that we are convinced of the law (…). In that conviction we are not, in principle, willing to change it.”
Extraordinary sessions
This Thursday, four commissions were formed to begin debating the law in a climate that the journalists present described as “tense.” One of the biggest controversies was sparked by the appointment of deputy José Luis Espert as president of the Budget commission, a legislator who belongs to a monobloc and has threatened left-wing legislators on social networks with “jail or a bullet.” The deputies face a package of more than 300 pages that they must discuss throughout January in extraordinary sessions. The Government, for now, has rejected extending that period.
“This hyperactivity is common at the beginning of a Government,” says Juan Negri, doctor in Political Science and director of the degree in Political Science at the Di Tella University, who finds “rationality” in the Government's measures. “The question I have,” he continues, “is whether the Government really plans to negotiate.” “If it goes all or nothing, the situation will be more complicated because the Government did not secure legislative support, it came out with the upper hand against many actors and has a lot of social activity against it.” “If you think that, you're going to hit the wall. The worst scenario for the Government is to be in April without any good news to give yet, unpopular, in the minority in Congress, with social movements in the streets,” warns Negri.
Milei's party, La Libertad Avanza, is in a minority in Parliament. In Peronism, the main opposition bloc, there is still no clear leadership. Former Economy Minister Sergio Massa – who lost to Milei in the elections –, former President Alberto Fernández and former Vice President Cristina Kirchner are out of the picture for now. The center-right of Together for Change is also defining its space. “It's going to cost them. Electoral geometry is complicated for them because some are against the form [de las medidas de Milei], but the majority is in favor of the fund,” explains Negri. “Some,” she continues, “seem to be trying to give institutional and legislative viability to Milei.” Others formed a new bloc, We Make the Federal Coalition, which also integrates sectors of Peronism. Opposite, Congress has a debate that for the political scientist will be “arduous, high-profile and very slow.”
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