Why could the 2024 presidential elections break US history in two?

Few events will have as much significance in 2024 as the presidential and legislative elections in the United States. Not only for the future of this country, but for the world and, incidentally, that of Colombia and the region.

Starting this January 15, with the Iowa caucus, a long electoral process formally begins that will culminate in November, when the winners of both parties (Republican and Democrat) measure strength to define both control of the White House and the Senate and the House of Representatives.

While supremacy in Congress is of enormous importance, all eyes are on the dispute for the Oval Office, which promises to be a repeat of the 2020 election between current President Joe Biden and then-President Donald Trump.

And that ended in the worst fracture of American democracy in recent history, when a mob of supporters of the Republican president took the Capitol by force to prevent the certification of the winner.

(Also read: These are the extreme measures that Trump proposes to stop immigration in the US.)

Although no one rules out a surprise in the round of primary elections, which runs from January to June, this one looks increasingly remote. Biden, barring any major health problems, will be the representative of the Democrats, while Trump, everything indicates, will be the one designated by his party.

That, at least, is what all the surveys point to. Biden, as is tradition in the US, does not have a credible candidate who can challenge his nomination, which would take place in August.

In the case of the Republicans, there are still six candidates who aspire to dethrone the former president. But none of them are even close. In the latest average of polls carried out by the 538 portal, Trump has 63 percent favorability compared to 12 percent for the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and 10 percent for the former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley. Who are his most immediate followers.

In fact, unlike previous contests that were only decided in the summer, It is very likely that the Republican one will conclude (de facto) on March 5 on the famous Super Tuesday, when 17 states will go to the polls.

(You may be interested: How likely is it that Donald Trump will end up convicted by the US justice system?)

After that date, it is very likely that Trump will be unreachable and the others will withdraw their candidacies.

The strength of the former president, at least among his own party, contrasts with the weakness of Biden, who does not even excite the Democrats themselves. At the national level, Biden's popularity, according to this same portal, is anchored at a pyrrhic 39 percent. One of the worst rates ever recorded by a president seeking re-election.

If only Democrats are taken into account, it rises to 77 percent, a number also very low for a sitting president. In politics, analysts always say, just a month is an eternity. And since the election is still almost a year away, anything could happen.

Biden, according to a recent report from the Washington Post, is increasingly frustrated by the little “love” that Americans profess for him. Although his presidency has been marked by acute crises, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and high inflation, the US prospects are not bad and his achievements in government are relevant. Among them, the law to encourage investment in infrastructure and measures to stabilize the economy after the covid-19 pandemic.

Although inflation remains high (at 3.1 percent), it has fallen dramatically from nearly 10 percent last year and the Federal Reserve suggested a few days ago that the prospect of a recession appears to be in the rearview mirror and will begin reducing interest rates in 2024.

(Also: Why is Biden plummeting in the polls one year before the US presidential election?)

The unemployment rate, on the other hand, is one of the lowest in a decade (3.5 percent) and the price of gasoline – another key marker due to the impact on production chains and consumers – has continued to fall (average of 3 dollars per gallon to 5 dollars in the middle of last year). His administration, in the process, has generated more than 3.2 million jobs, a growth record that has not been seen since the 1960s.

That, however, has not yet altered the rising cost of living or the perception that the economy is not doing well. Likewise, the lack of enthusiasm for Biden has a lot to do with his age and the idea that he may already be too old (at 80 years old) for a second term in the White House.

Unfair or not (Trump, at 77, is not a young man either), the temporary verdict is not in his favor. In all recent polls, both nationally and in key states, the former president leads him between 2 and 5 points.

Which has surprised many, given the polarization that characterized his presidency – he faced two impeachment trials and almost destroyed the democratic system by denying the electoral result of the 2020 elections – and how controversial he continues to be.

Currently, the former president faces four criminal proceedings: one for falsifying documents to hide an extramarital relationship, another for extracting classified documents and two for electoral interference. AND At least one of them – the federal case he faces for trying to reverse his defeat at the polls – could conclude before Americans vote on November 5.

(You can read: The challenges that Joe Biden faces to achieve re-election in the United States)

In other words, the US could elect a president recently convicted and facing a prison sentence.

And hence the unprecedented and explosive nature of this electoral cycle. Of course, a lot can happen in the interregnum.

According to Matt Hogan, a strategist close to the Democratic Party, Biden's current performance – and his poor numbers – could take on another dimension once Americans are faced with the decision of a return to the Trump years or the continuity that the current one promises. leader.

Something that will depend, to a large extent, on the assessment made by independent voters and the motivation of the Democratic Party to stop the former president.

Particularly among the country's youth and women, who often respond to issues such as climate change and the right to abortion.

In any case, a decision that could split the country's history in two. In recent weeks, Trump has shown that his version 2.0 is even more extreme than what he showed between 2016 and 2020.

His anti-immigrant rhetoric has continued to grow to the point of suggesting that migration is “muddying” American blood, increasingly aligning himself with anti-democratic leaders like Vladimir Putin, and flirting with the idea of ​​a dictatorship or the suppression of rights if that serves the good. common (perceiving).

A victory leveraged on these slogans could provoke an institutional earthquake with unpredictable consequences. Of what magnitude? Nobody knows. But it would be felt in every corner of the planet.

Particularly in the war between Russia and Ukraine – since both Trump and the Republicans have lost interest in this conflict and they do not see it as decisive for the stability of the order that emerged after the Second World War – but also in the course of the war between Israel and Hamas and its potential expansion to other countries in the Middle East.

(Continue reading: Fall of Bob Menéndez: from influential Hispanic in the US to a hell of corruption)

In the specific case of Colombia, A Trump victory could bring relations to a critical moment, at least while Gustavo Petro is in office. a left-wing leader who has little in common with the former president and many break given the size of the bilateral relationship.

And the same could be said for other countries in the region such as Brazil, Chile, Peru, Bolivia and Mexico to name just a few.

An uncertain panorama that is about to begin to clear up. For better or worse.

SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
On Twitter (X) @sergom68