The report “5 drivers of risks and opportunities in the Arab world during the next five years” provided an analysis of the events and changes that the Arab region witnessed over the past two decades, and identified opportunities and risks that would stimulate political and economic change during the next five years.
The report, which was issued by the Arab Strategic Forum, in cooperation with the “Risks Control” institution, which specializes in studying risks and opportunities, coincides with the forum’s work being held in Dubai yesterday.
The report confirmed that there were major events that reshaped the Arab world, including devastating wars, political crises, the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, and protests in a number of Arab countries in 2011, in addition to the “Covid-19” pandemic, which cost the region’s economies losses worth $200 billion.
Regarding the first factor of the five factors driving risks and opportunities in the Arab world, “Adaptation for Prosperity: How can the Arab world define its role in light of a changing global order?”, the report stressed that the ongoing competition between the major powers, the United States of America, Russia, and China, has stimulated… Consolidating stronger ties between the countries of the South, with huge investment potential during the next five years.
The report identified the most prominent risks: With the increasing strategic competition between the United States and China, Arab countries will face pressure to choose one camp over the other.
The report pointed out that destabilizing security at the external and regional levels will lead to severe geopolitical tensions, putting the political and economic resilience of the Arab world to the test.
He stressed that the most prominent opportunities are that the ability to achieve a balance between diplomatic relations and commercial interests between the United States and China paves the way for political and economic advantages for Arab countries. Strengthening relations between the countries of the South will enable the Arab countries to adopt a new role and enjoy a prominent position in the structure of the global political and economic system in the future. In addition, the expansion of the BRICS group, with the entry of three new members from the most prominent Arab countries in the region, will enable Raising the status and reputation of the Arab world.
Regarding the second factor: “Shifting Sands: Continuing Alliances and Rivalries to Reshape the Regional Political Arena,” the report stressed the importance of regional partnerships and multilateral bodies, such as the League of Arab States, to play a greater role in regional diplomacy over the next five years.
He stated that the failure of the nuclear agreement with Iran is an opportunity for the region to find a comprehensive solution to an issue that has long been controlled by non-state actors.
He stated that Syria's return to the League of Arab States, after suspending its membership in November 2011, is an indication of the possibility of strengthening regional cooperation during the next five years.
The report identified the most prominent opportunities in that both the UAE and Saudi Arabia can benefit from their integrated economies to achieve growth and prosperity in the Arab world, and the League of Arab States may constitute an engine for cooperation and security stability in the region, in addition to the diplomatic and political progress that has been achieved between Iran and the great powers. In the region, it paves the way for finding a solution at the local level, preventing the risk of the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Regarding the third factor: “The Conflict of the Old and the New: The Arab World Resolves Its Disputes on Its Own,” the report reported continued insecurity on the borders of the Arab region, along with old conflicts within the region in 2024, which threatens to undermine the region’s potential.
The report pointed out that the increase in the number and consolidation of non-state actors in the Arab region would complicate mediation processes in resolving disputes, bilateral engagement, and discourage investment, stressing that the Arab world can be a source of solutions to its own regional diplomatic challenges.
The report stated that reaching a comprehensive political solution to the conflict in Yemen represents a challenge during the year 2024, and that the continuation of the civil war in Sudan threatens the security vacuum and threatens the stability of the southern borders of the Arab Republic of Egypt.
Regarding the most prominent risks, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will continue to impose economic, food, and diplomatic challenges on the Arab countries, and the ongoing conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen undermine their political and economic potential, while the war in Sudan would create a gap in governance and security in the long term. In addition, enhancing the empowerment of non-state actors in a number of Arab countries may prevent conflict resolution, bilateral engagement, and investment.
As for the most notable opportunities, Arab countries can continue to build on their achievements in mediating disputes beyond the borders of the Arab world. At the regional level, the conflicts in Sudan, Yemen, and Syria would open the way for solutions to be found from within the region, and a new generation of conflict mediation efforts led by Arab countries could enhance regional geopolitical and economic stability.
Regarding the fourth factor, “Assuming leadership with economic diversification and leading the energy transition,” the report explained that the spread and visualization of the national vision plans paves the way for national transformation in a dynamic manner that affects all parts of the Arab world, and that developing effective human capital and confronting unemployment is a basis for achieving the promise of economic diversification within the plans. Vision.
The report identified the most prominent risks in that the unemployment rate among youth is still high in a number of the largest economies in the region, in addition to the lack of investment and enabling human resources development, which threatens to undermine ambitious plans for economic transformation, and that many Arab countries will be vulnerable to the dual challenges of… In economic diversification away from oil, and adopting new energy systems to reduce global warming, in addition to innovating other sources to provide safe drinking water.
The report said that the most prominent opportunities are that Arab countries’ commitment to national vision plans contributes to advancing economic success, in addition to continuing to enable and harness renewable energy in many countries of the region will lead to reducing government and consumer costs and enhancing energy security. The Arab world also enjoys With a prominent position to be a prominent player in the new global energy system, represented by renewable energy, expanding the international electricity transmission network and hydrogen energy.
As for the fifth factor, “New Opportunities and Challenges: Directing Economic Growth Prospects in 2024 and Beyond,” the report explained that, thanks to the support of national vision plans, the technological renaissance and commitment to the solutions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will enhance national added value (ICV) and develop regional value chains, and will also lead to The growth of public and private financing has significantly boosted investment across the region, but tightening environmental, social and governance (ESG) guidelines and regulations in major key markets may pose a barrier.
• “The increase in the number of non-state actors in the Arab region would complicate mediation in resolving conflicts.”
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