Is Israel preparing third phase of the war in Gaza? Announces withdrawal of thousands of soldiers

Israel seeks to adapt the deployment of its troops in Gaza in the face of a war that will continue into 2024, and hopes at some point to reduce the intensity of its offensive and enter a third phase of the conflict with a smaller presence of soldiers in the Strip and more selective attacks against the Islamist group Hamas, which continues to resist.

“The objectives of the war require prolonged combat and we are preparing accordingly,” Army spokesman Daniel Hagari said Monday.

According to him, the Defense apparatus adapts “the way of waging war and the forces necessary in each area of ​​the Strip, since each area has different characteristics and operational needs.”

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So far this involves a ground offensive combining intense land, sea and air attacks and direct fighting in an asymmetric guerrilla war with the still operational Palestinian militias.

However, still far from achieving its goal of ending Hamas and dismantling its armed infrastructure, Israel has been transmitting these days that the conflict will last at least for months, which implies adjustments among the more than 360,000 reservist soldiers who were mobilized after the war broke out on October 7.

The enormous war effort – it was the largest mobilization of reservists in Israel's history – also affected the economy, lame since a significant part of its active workforce was assigned to confront the conflict.

“Some reservists will return to their families and jobs this week. This will allow them to gather forces for next year's actions, as fighting will continue and will continue to be necessary,” Hagari said.

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According to the press, The Army will withdraw five brigades, which means sending thousands of soldiers home, but it is not clear if it represents a routine rotation or it could mark the way to another phase of war.

Several witnesses in northern Gaza told AFP on Monday that they saw Israeli troops abandoning several areas in and around Gaza City, suggesting a new deployment configuration and not a permanent withdrawal.

But, as military analyst Amir Bohbot comments this Monday in the Israeli digital Walla, This could indicate that there is less need to have ground troops deployed on the ground due to the blows dealt for almost three months in the Strip.

“Many Hamas battalions have already been decimated, more than 8,000 terrorists have been killed and large areas of Gaza have been cleared. of its infrastructure, including tunnels, command posts, weapons warehouses, safe houses or rocket launching points,” he says.

As he points out, The Army “wants to move on to the next stage of the war with more concentrated attacks from the air and ground,” and in turn the Defense apparatus hopes to have clearer guidelines on the long-term strategy to be followed by the Government.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet clarified how to deal with 'the day after' in Gaza due to “political issues,” says Bohbot, while the Israeli press points to internal friction between the governing coalition partners that have prevented any steps from being taken.

All in all, “the prevailing assessment is that Israeli forces will begin to launch more targeted air and ground operations against terrorist hotspots in Gaza from Israeli territory, rather than from within Gaza.” This plan would seek to “reduce troops” inside the enclave and prevent many soldiers “from being exposed to being targets of terrorist cells,” says Bohbot.

So far, since the start of the Israeli ground incursion on October 27, at least 172 soldiers have been killed, including about 18 by friendly fire. and others in various accidents, beyond the attacks of the militias, which surprise the soldiers from their hiding places or tunnels, and creating ambushes with anti-tank missiles.

According to Michael Milshtein, director of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, “the third phase of the war will begin soon” and will change its current dynamics.

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The attacks will be “of lower intensity and ground maneuvers will be replaced by specific operations to induce the collapse of the Hamas regime over time,” says Milshtein in the newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth. However, he warns that “A war of attrition” could be dangerous for Israel, since Hamas “has demonstrated its ability to wage a bitter war” and “is still standing.”

“The fact that Hamas has survived and continues to fight” could be “a success” for the Islamist group, which gives value “to its principle of firm perseverance and its doctrine of resistance,” explains the analyst.

For Milsthein, in these circumstances Hamas will continue to resist and “undermine any” Israeli “step to establish mechanisms of civilian control over the Strip,” while “its population will not want to cooperate and foreign donors” will avoid investing money in projects in a region that suffers from chronic instability.

Given this, “Israel needs to rethink the third phase of the war” and “take control of the entire Strip.” This will take “a long time and will have a high price”, but only then “can we try to create 'a different order' in Gaza” and destroy “all the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas”, he believes.

The International Crisis Group think tank said in a report that “so far there is little to suggest that Israel can eliminate Hamas.” Even if it achieves “the difficult task” of destroying its militias, “the political and social movement” it embodies “will survive,” and “armed resistance will continue in some form as long as Israel's occupation” of Palestinian territory persists, the group of experts concludes. .

How is the war progressing on the ground?

The truth is that while he readjusts his troops on the ground, The Israeli Army continues its attacks by air, land and sea on the Gaza Strip on day 88 of its war against the Islamist group Hamas.

“In joint operations, the naval, air and ground forces of the Israel Defense Forces attacked several terrorists and neutralized explosives,” an Army spokesman said.

This occurred after Israeli troops identified militants “placing explosive devices along the coast of the Gaza Strip and within compounds adjacent to the coast,” to detonate them against Israeli soldiers, he explained.

In the north of the Palestinian enclave, a group of Israeli soldiers secured control of the residence of the commander of Hamas' Gaza City Brigade. Special forces scanned the area and, during a hand-to-hand combat, “the troops killed dozens of terrorists,” the military spokesman reported.

In that place, the uniformed men destroyed tunnel mouths, large quantities of weapons and found intelligence material that connects the Daraj Tuffah mosque with the attack carried out by Hamas in October that sparked the war.

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In the south of the Gaza Strip, several witnesses reported missile hits in Rafah on Tuesday and in the north of the territory, shelling was reported near the Jabaliya refugee camp.

Fighting was also reported in Al Maghazi and Bureij and in the main southern city, Khan Yunis, where the Israeli army has concentrated its operations.

Thus, the Ministry of Health of the Palestinian enclave reported this Tuesday that The number of victims from the Israeli Army's attacks in the Gaza Strip increased to 22,185 dead and 57,035 injured.

“During the last 24 hours, the Israeli occupation committed 15 massacres against families in the Gaza Strip, claiming the lives of 207 martyrs and 338 wounded,” said a statement from the ministry, controlled by Hamas.

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From north to south of the Strip, Gazans “witnessed a series of attacks with fighter jets, drones and artillery fire, which caused immense damage,” indicated the official Palestinian news agency, Wafa.

The Red Crescent emergency services reported that Israeli troops are attacking their facilities in Khan Younis, a region in the south of the Strip that functions as a militia stronghold, which has caused several deaths and injuries, including displaced civilians who took refuge in that place.

“The drones continue to fire in the vicinity of Al Amal hospital and the Red Crescent headquarters in Khan Yunis,” said a statement from the organization.

In Deir al Balah, a city in the center of the Palestinian enclave where at least nine people died yesterday, at least 15 civilians died this Tuesday, mostly women and children, due to bombings, while in the nearby Nuseirat refugee camp “several “Civilians were massacred and others were injured in an Israeli attack on a house,” the agency explained.

EFE AND AFP