The controversial and veteran Benjamin Netanyahu He has been Prime Minister of Israel for one year since he allied himself with the most orthodox and nationalist sectors to return to power, and although he avoided a historic anti-government protest movement, The war in Gaza could mark a checkmate for his careeraccording to analysts.
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After close elections, Netanyahu achieved a solid right-wing coalition that gave him 64 of the 120 seats in the Knesset (Israeli Parliament), and he was sworn in as prime minister on December 29, 2022.
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“It was a victory that not even he expected, it made him lose contact with reality. “He thought that he would be immune, that he could do whatever he wanted,” Aviv Bushinsky, Netanyahu's former advisor and former chief of staff between 1997 and 2005, told EFE.
Facing a series of legal proceedings for corruption, “Bibi” – as he is nicknamed in Israel – began his mandate with a judicial reform that compromised democracy and the independence of Justice. This generated the most massive anti-government movement in the country's recent history and deep social polarization.
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It was a victory that not even he expected, it made him lose contact with reality. He thought that he would be immune, that he could do whatever he wanted.
“His extreme reform was conducted in a belligerent manner and did not anticipate the volume of demonstrations,” which only ceased when the war broke out, Bushinsky points out, explaining that The judicial initiative distracted the prime minister from key issues.
Among the great campaign promises were defeating terrorism; weaken the nuclear efforts of Iran, Israel's greatest enemy; boost the powerful high-tech sector and extend diplomatic relations with the Arab world.
But “Netanyahu, always strong when it comes to speaking, is also the man who never delivers”deplores an editorial in Yedioth Ahronoth, the Hebrew-language newspaper with the largest circulation, which calls for the president's resignation.
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The war against Hamas: last chapter of his career
Indeed, the promises remained a dead letter: the Islamist group Hamas, considered terrorist by Israel, the United States and the European Union, carried out the worst attack in Israel's 75-year history; the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah intensified its hostilities on the northern border; Iran tripled its production of near-weapons-grade uranium; and numerous high-tech companies emigrated abroad fearing negative implications of judicial reform.
Besides, When the war against Hamas in Gaza broke out, not only did the long-awaited pact to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia disappear, but the ties that Israel already has with Arab countries and even with Turkey were strained..
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The son of a historian, Netanyahu – who has been prime minister six times for 16 non-consecutive years – always wanted to leave his mark in the annals.
But “not only did he fail to have his name written in golden letters in the history of Israel, but he could be remembered as the prime minister who committed one of the country's most tragic failures,” Bushinsky emphasizes, referring to the surprise attack by Hamas. on October 7, which unleashed the war and left some 1,200 dead and 240 hostages taken to the Strip.
For Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan research center, The war in Gaza will be “the last chapter of Netanyahu's career”.
Both analysts estimate that, even if Israel achieves a resounding victory in the war, Netanyahu would have to resign, as former Prime Minister Golda Meir did under social pressure after the Yom Kippur War, half a century ago.
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According to a recent survey by the Israel Democracy Institute, 69% of Israelis want new elections immediately after the war.
Ace up your sleeve
“The majority wants Netanyahu to leave his post,” not only among civil society but also within his own party, the Likud, says Milstein, who does not rule out an electoral contest even before the end of the war.
According to the expert, Likud will seek an agreement with current opposition leaders, while Bushinsky foresees the emergence of at least two new right-wing parties.
The first signs of a potential collapse of the government appear as the war, which has left more than 21,000 dead in the Strip, intensifies.
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The United States, Israel's main partner, wants the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), which governs small parts of the occupied West Bank, to have some control of Gaza after the war ends, and advocates a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. .
Despite growing pressure in this regard, Netanyahu has vehemently opposed these positions considered by many to be unavoidable, since they would cause an immediate break with their anti-Arab partners on the most radical right, essential forces to maintain their government coalition.
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This strategy could be the last ace up the skillful politician's sleeve to gain time and the sympathy of an electorate still traumatized by the Hamas attack, and even try to reverse the image of “guilty” of the war to that of “winner.” of a war.
As the formidable chess player that he is, “Netanyahu sees everything in black and white, and at this moment he needs to be very polarized and say: 'this (Hamas or ANP) is the enemy and we must defeat it'”considers Bushinsky, estimating that when the waters calm down and the climate changes, so will the president's positions.
EFE
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