China is flexing its muscles, especially with regard to Taiwan. But is there a risk of war? An ex-NATO commander in chief says no – not yet.
Washington/Beijing – War is currently determining world politics. After the Russian attack on Ukraine, the Israel war threatens to become a conflagration in the Middle East. But another very disastrous conflict is already looming on the horizon. The main role: China.
Beijing has claimed Taiwan as its own for decades and has recently been increasingly flexing its muscles. China's air force and navy regularly exercise in the Taiwan Strait, the strait between Taiwan and southeast China's Fujian province. Fighter jets invade Taiwan's air defense zone almost daily, trying to tire out the armed forces and intimidate the public, experts say. An attack by China on Taiwan could trigger a chain reaction, as the USA supports Taiwan's independence and also supplies weapons to Taipei.
Is there a threat of war with China? Ex-NATO commander-in-chief names “grace period”
It almost seems as if China is waiting for the right moment to carry out its threats. Former NATO commander-in-chief James Stavridis has now given a time horizon for when this could happen, as the US portal does Newsweek reported.
When asked whether tensions in the South China Sea could lead to a new world war, Stavridis said in an interview with the radio show The Michael Medved: “In my estimation, China will only be ready to take on the US in a very mature way in about ten years. So I think we have a kind of grace period here.” During this time, the military and thus deterrence must be strengthened and diplomacy and other methods must be used to reduce tensions.
“Even though China is building a huge fleet, even though it is acting aggressively, it is not ready yet,” Stavridis continued. The retired US Navy admiral points out in the interview that China would not only fight against the USA in the event of a possible attack. Rather, the USA has contracting partners such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines who would support the Americans. “That’s a lot of firepower,” Stavridis said.
China not ready for war yet? Experts agree with Stavridis
Other Western and Taiwanese experts also currently do not trust China to take over the island state of Taiwan militarily. “Although the risk of a conflict over Taiwan has increased, a full-scale amphibious attack by China is unlikely in the short term,” said China analyst at the non-governmental organization Crisis Group, Amanda Hsiao, to the German Press Agency. “Amphibious assault” means an attack across the strait between the two states.
The chances of a successful operation are uncertain, Hsiao said. According to her, Beijing does not currently have the military capabilities for a quick and decisive victory over Taiwan.
China also seems to have realized that it cannot force Taiwan to give up, said David Gitter of the US research institute National Bureau of Asian Research. “However, Beijing is actively working to address these deficiencies.” However, in the medium and long term, an invasion or other military actions cannot be ruled out. However, the costs of war are high. China's economic problems and attempts at rapprochement with Taiwan's ally, the USA, currently make an invasion unlikely.
China blusters openly: “Can be solved tonight”
In Beijing they see it differently: “If China wants to solve the Taiwan issue by force, it can be solved tonight, and no one can stop it, not even the Taiwanese independence elements or the USA,” said the president of the Beijing based Chinese think tank Center for China and Globalization, Victor Gao. The US either overestimated its own military strength or underestimated China's. According to Gao, China does not want war. “We all think that peaceful reunification is the better way,” he said. Taiwan will always be part of China and China is in no hurry to resolve the issue.
Beijing has claimed Taiwan for decades under the so-called One China policy. The dispute dates back to the Chinese civil war between the communists and the government of the Republic of China – not to be confused with today's People's Republic of China. After the Second World War and the end of Japanese colonial rule, Taiwan was again part of the Republic of China for a few years. In 1949, today's Taiwanese opposition party, the Kuomintang, lost in the civil war and fled to Taiwan, where it continued to rule as the Republic of China. An independent democratic government has sat in the capital Taipei since the late 1980s.
Beijing has already threatened to invade Taiwan and its more than 23 million inhabitants if “peaceful reunification” is not possible. (with dpa)
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