The exchange of prisoners that has taken place between the Governments of Venezuela and the United States, which has put the Barbados agreements back on the table and has allowed the release of several dozen political activists, has been received with impossible acrimony in certain sectors of the anti-chavismo. The main reason: Alex Saab, the Colombian businessman who is a friend of the Miraflores Palace, became a diplomat, and, ultimately, the international operator of Madurismo in times of economic sanctions, ends up free, vindicated by Chavismo with total cold blood regardless of the accusations made against him.
After spending several months in prison in Florida accused of bribery and money laundering after being captured in 2020 in Cape Verde, Saab's return to Caracas, which seemed inconceivable just weeks ago, is a point in favor for the ruling party and removes its adversaries a valuable piece of exchange and pressure. Nicolás Maduro achieves what seemed impossible, and, as stated by Maryhen Jiménez, doctor in Political Science and academic at the University of Oxford, “he exhibits a new example of political power” in his confrontation with the United States.
Voices reappear on social networks and in activist groups on WhatsApp that remind him how much Maduro has been underestimated as an operator in decisive moments to negotiate. Saab's release had been placed as a prerequisite by the ruling party to start any conversation around agreed and verifiable elections. In previous agreements, the United States had already made other important concessions to Maduro, most notably having freed and cleared of charges some prisoners accused of corruption who are his relatives. Energy sanctions on Venezuela have also been lifted, with some conditions, after the Barbados agreements.
Without denying that there is an atmosphere of “indignation” in civil society over the release of Saab, due to the serious accusations made against him, for the political scientist, writer and academic Diego Bautista Urbaneja, the fundamental thing “is that Saab, as a prisoner, had lost all use value. What he had left was some exchange value. He had already said everything he knew, he was questioned, he must have collaborated and released everything with the United States justice system. If handing him over would free 30 opposition prisoners, including 12 Americans, perhaps the procedure was worth it.”
Urbaneja does not foresee very visible consequences resulting from the release of Saab in the internal order. “The problem we have is the same: achieving political change in peace, through electoral and probably negotiated means. “This depends on the fact that María Corina Machado, the winner of the primaries, can participate as a candidate.”
Shortly after the announcements were made, the opposition presidential candidate herself issued a statement in which she hinted that she participated in these negotiations. “It is public knowledge that the United States and the Maduro regime have established a complementary negotiation to the Barbados Roundtable. Although we are not part of it, we have been involved to contribute to achieving the objective that free elections take place and the interests of Venezuelans are fully represented.”
The leader, however, does not fail to take note of the existing dissatisfaction: “The electoral route is complex and faces multiple threats. Those in power use all their resources to demoralize us; That is why they turn a criminal who has exploited the hunger of our people into their favorite bargaining chip in the negotiation.”
Julio Castillo, columnist, activist and political analyst, comments that what is necessary to rescue is that the dialogue process is not at a stalemate. “The expectations of the United States are one thing, and those of the Venezuelan opposition are another,” he says. “The most important thing is that there is an open flow of communications, conversations are taking place, it is a process and negotiations are maintained.”
“It is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the immediate usefulness of these exchanges,” says Jiménez. “Minimizing the scope of the release of these 30 political prisoners – some already sentenced to serious sentences -, as some in the opposition do, is a mistake. “These leaders return to their communities, their influence will be amplified, and their families will receive enormous relief.”
Jiménez finds María Corina Machado's new tone particularly interesting in the context in front of her. “This circumstance can be a good thermometer to measure its influence. María Corina has realized that she is no longer the leader of a niche of the radical sectors, but that she is at the head of a complex process of national unity, which must be incremental, but not maximalist. Her behavior is another of hers.”
For now, waiting for a response from the Supreme Court of Justice regarding her right to participate as a presidential candidate after having won the opposition primaries last October, Machado has limited herself to pointing out that, once all her demands have been met, -the end of energy sanctions, the release of Saab and the end of the judicialization of some of his relatives – Nicolás Maduro “would have no excuse” to face her in free, honest and verifiable presidential elections in the coming 2024.
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