Russia | Researcher: Putin's speech reinforces the impression that the war will continue as long as he himself remains in power

Russian researcher, Professor at the University of Helsinki Vladimir Gelman considers that the President Vladimir Putin the main message of the four-hour speech marathon is that Russia's war against Ukraine will continue as long as Putin remains in power.

“He said the goals are the same [kuin sodan alussa], Ukraine's disarmament and neutral status. Russia still demands the full realization of these goals and is ready to continue [sotaa] for years,” says Gelman.

Putin spoke on Thursday in the so-called in a straight line, The results of the year in a TV and radio show called At the same event, Putin answered questions from journalists and citizens, which had been carefully selected in advance.

in western countries views have been expressed that Ukraine should negotiate peace with Russia. According to Gelman, Putin's speeches show that Putin sees the negotiations only as a way to the complete realization of Russia's wishes in Ukraine.

“It includes a change of power in Ukraine and guarantees that Ukraine will not receive any kind of military aid from abroad. Ukraine must unequivocally stop opposing Russia and follow the kind of domestic and foreign policy that Russia wants. In fact, Russia demands that it can do what it wants in Ukraine.”

According to Gelman, such peace terms are unacceptable for any Ukrainian leadership.

“I think these [Putinin esittämät] the conditions are completely exaggerated and unrealistic.”

Gelman does not find credible Putin's assurance on Thursday that there is no new motion to be launched in Russia.

“We'll see what happens in the spring, when the presidential elections are over,” he says.

At the event, Putin also praised the state of the Russian economy. According to Gelman, the economic growth of Russia praised by Putin is true, but it is based on pumping state money, especially into the arms industry.

This, in turn, can cause Russia, over time, a similar depression as the Soviet Union's rearmament.

“

In his speeches, Putin in no way ignored Finland, the situation on the eastern border, NATO membership or the defense agreement with the United States.

Russian assistant professor of security policy Katri Pynnöniemi draws attention to the fact that Putin spoke several times on Thursday about the patriotic education of the youth.

“He said twice that the teachers will win the war. By this he means the indoctrination of the youth and the rewriting of school history books.”

Pynnöniemi's ears were also touched by the talks about Ukraine, although there was nothing particularly new about them. For example, Putin spoke of Odessa as a “Russian city”.

Putin said that the occupied territories in Ukraine will start producing for the Russian budget.

“This brings out the point of view that the occupation of territories has also been about resources.”

Putin in no way ignored Finland in his speeches, the situation on the eastern borderNATO membership or Finland defense agreement with the United States. Pynnöniemi does not know how to consider this as a special sign.

“He could have always answered these questions and glued someone's lie.”

Attention In Putin's speech, the figures he presented about the Russian troops in Ukraine woke us up.

Putin said that 617,000 Russians are currently fighting in Ukraine.

According to him, 244,000 of those mobilized last fall are still at the front. Since then, 486,000 “volunteers” or mercenaries have been recruited, according to Putin's “information received yesterday”.

Message service in X supplier Ian Matveev considered that Putin indirectly admitted the losses of 360,000 soldiers, if it is assumed that before last fall's mobilization, 250,000 soldiers had been sent to Ukraine.

In practice, it is difficult to draw far-reaching conclusions from the figures.

Putin did not say whether all 486,000 conscripts are already at the front. In general, it is impossible to check the reliability of the figure.

Russia has also sent residents of the occupied territories, prisoners and Wagner soldiers to the war. It is not known how many have returned home.

News agency Reuters a US intelligence report obtained suggests that Russia initially sent 360,000 troops to the war and that 312,000 have been wounded or killed so far.

Ukraine estimated in September that Russia has 420,000 soldiers at the front.

Pynnöniemi estimates that by presenting big numbers, Putin also wants to scare Ukraine and its supporters.