This Thursday, the top leaders of Guyana and Venezuela, countries in dispute over the Essequibo border area, have a meeting. Although it is not a recent conflict, in recent weeks tensions have increased between both countries. Below are some starting points to understand the origin of the conflict and the importance of the meeting.
A meeting that could defuse the situation between Georgetown and Caracas. Nicolás Maduro, president of Venezuela, and Mohamed Irfaan Ali, president of Guyana, will have a bilateral meeting this Thursday in which they are expected to discuss their territorial dispute over Essequibo, which has made countries in the region fear a possible conflict between his neighbors.
The host country of the event is Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and its prime minister, Ralph Gonsalves, has been one of the main mediators for it to take place. That the meeting takes place is the result of a conversation that took place on Saturday between Maduro, Gonsalves, and António Guterres, secretary general of the United Nations. Gonsalves is also currently president pro tempore of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).
In recent weeks, Latin American international politics has witnessed increased tensions between Guyana and Venezuela. The reason, an argument between the two States about whose border extension of the Essequibo belongs; an area in Guyana where massive offshore oil and gas deposits have been found.
The Venezuelan ruling party has said that the purpose of the meeting on December 14 is “to preserve our aspiration to maintain Latin America and the Caribbean as a zone of peace.” For its part, the Office of the Guyanese president confirmed the attendance of his president, however, he noted that “Guyana's land border is not subject to discussion.”
Although the two States have expressed their intentions to cooperate to resolve the conflict, they substantially disagree on the role that the International Court of Justice should have, the legal branch of the United Nations that is responsible for resolving disputes between States and that currently has open a case about the conflict between Georgetown and Caracas over this disputed territory, after Guyana asked the Court to intervene, although Caracas does not recognize its jurisdiction.
On December 3, the Government of Venezuela held a non-binding referendum for the country's citizens to vote on whether or not the Essequibo area should be annexed as part of Venezuelan territory. The country's National Electoral Council stated that 95% of the 10.4 million participants voted in favor of the annexation, so Maduro assured that the consultation is binding “and abides by the mandate of the people,” which added pressure to the situation.
For its part, Guyana denounced the referendum as a pretext to justify the accession of Essequibo to Venezuelan jurisdiction. Previously, the Guyanese Government had already denounced Venezuela's aspirations before the International Court of Justice, which ordered the Venezuelan Government not to take any measures to change the status quo of territorial extension until the court made an official statement on the claims of both countries.
What is the nature of the conflict?
It is a dispute of centuries. Venezuela claims that in 1899 it was the victim of a land theft conspiracy, when Guyana was a British colony and Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom decided the border limits. At that time, Washington represented the interests of Caracas because the Venezuelan Government had broken its diplomatic relations with the British colony.
For Venezuelan officials, the United States and Europe colluded and deceived their country by taking away its land. At the same time, they maintain that an agreement between Venezuela, the United Kingdom and the colony of British Guyana signed in 1966 to resolve the dispute annulled the original arbitration on the territorial dispute.
In contrast, Guyana claims the initial agreement is legal and binding, which is why it asked the UN's top court in 2018 to rule it as such, however the process may take even more years.
This political and historical conflict has an extra component: oil. In 2015, a consortium led by the American company ExxonMobil discovered for the first time a significant oil reserve off the Essequibo coast, fueling Venezuela's interest in claiming what it considers to be its own.
Four years later, in December 2019, the consortium began the extraction of oil from this deposit in the territory of Essequibo, whose control is currently under the control of Guyana. These exploitations have led the country to become the fourth largest producer of marine oil in the world..
Oil operations generate nearly $1 billion a year for the nearly 800,000 Guyanese, who depend largely on an agrarian-based economy. For the first half of this year, Guyana's economy expanded by almost 60%.
Currently, daily production is about 380,000 barrels of crude oil and is expected to increase in the coming years, reaching 800,000 barrels per day. Exports of this fossil fuel largely went to the Netherlands and Panama over the past month; Part of the oil that arrived in Panama was sent to the west coast of the United States, according to the stock exchange S&P Global.
However, two months ago the Guyanese Government opened bids for 14 offshore oil blocks available for the exploration and development of oil activity. Along with other oil companies, ExxonMobil and Total Energies submitted their bid for the call.
A dispute before the 2024 elections
And while Guyana's oil trade is increasing, Venezuela's appears to be in decline. Although Venezuela has one of the largest crude oil reserves in the world, its oil industry has been affected by years of mismanagement and economic sanctions imposed on the state oil company by the international community.
A few months ago, Washington lifted part of its trade sanctions on Caracas, in exchange for the Venezuelan Government guaranteeing presidential elections next year with the participation of opposition leaders and the release of political prisoners detained by the Venezuelan ruling party.
The dispute could serve as a tool for the Maduro Government to gain popularity on an issue of national sovereignty prior to the 2024 elections.
With Reuters and AP
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