Maria Pevchij, journalist, activist and former right-hand woman of the Russian opponent Alexei Navalny, has visited Madrid these days with the aim of tightening the siege on the houses, yachts and other luxury goods that the Russian oligarchs have in Spain. She says she leaves satisfied with the meetings she has held with different official government agencies. “We are looking for Russian assets outside the country. And Spain is among the three most common destinations for corrupt Russian money,” she said this Monday. “In Malaga and Marbella we had to make constant stops. We would see a mansion here, another mansion there or a golf club owned by a deputy prime minister. Unfortunately, until very recently they were received very well. Nobody asked questions,” adds the director of the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), classified in 2019 as a “foreign agent” by the Russian Government, in a cafeteria in the center of the capital.
This activist accompanied Navalni when he was poisoned in his country in 2020. Pevchij (Zelenograd, 36 years old) says she is lucky because she lives “relatively” safe in Europe. “There is no immediate danger to my life. Although sometimes things happen: Russian secret services operate abroad. “I have family in Moscow and I know they are in danger.” Her speech is pessimistic: the war in Ukraine is not going well and she is convinced that the Kremlin already has everything ready for President Vladimir Putin to sweep the March 2024 elections, for which she has not even confirmed that will attend.
Ask. With little progress on the front and doubts about the maintenance of Western support, the progress of the war is becoming more complicated for Ukraine.
Answer. Indeed, things are not looking good. The Ukrainian Government has recognized that the counteroffensive is not giving the expected results. Western supplies of money and military materiel are falling. In Europe, more critical governments such as that of Slovakia emerge. And the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States would be a disaster for Ukraine.
Q. Is Putin winning the war?
R. We have to talk about two wars. Putin failed to take over Ukraine, which was the short-term war. Unfortunately, he probably won’t lose the war in the long run. Time is on his side. Russia is imposing its narrative that this is a very long conflict, something its population must prepare for. [Putin] It can change the structure of the Russian economy and invest money in military production. Furthermore, he has created a society where human life is worthless; This means that, unlike Ukraine, it has almost infinite population resources.
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Q. Have Western sanctions not worked?
R. The predictions of the collapse of the Russian economy were reasonable, but they have not come true. The Kremlin has managed to find a way to save the economy and soften the impact of sanctions. The mother of all sanctions, the Russian gas ban, has not yet occurred. Nor can it be said that the punishments have had no impact. The effect is milder than expected, but it is there. Putin finds it much more difficult to buy weapons components; he has been cut off from all foreign sources of money. The sanctions are working, but not with the necessary force.
Q. There is talk of a new general mobilization.
R. That may be one of your big internal problems. Many men were mobilized through deception and are now being told that they will not return to their homes. There are movements organized by mothers, sisters and other relatives of those soldiers. Discontent about this is very visible now in Russia.
Q. What repercussions would a Russian victory have?
R. The longer Putin remains in power, the level of repression grows exponentially. The entire opposition is in prison; Last week, the LGBT movement was branded an extremist organization; and now they are considering banning abortion. Who knows what’s going to be next? Reinstate the death penalty? Putin will never be satisfied with the level of repression.
Q. How do you explain the Kremlin’s homophobic obsession?
R. It is not an obsession, it is a political calculation. Putin’s main program for this cycle is conservative family values. He’s just trying to score points among the most conservative. That’s why he now also targets abortion.
Q. After almost two years of war, has the population gotten used to it?
R. Putin has been in power for 23 years. An entire generation has known nothing else. He has brainwashed the country with anti-Western propaganda, claiming that the evil United States wants Russia to break into 1,000 pieces. Change in Russia can only happen within Russia. That is why we focus a large part of our activity on internal politics. We do not believe that anyone from abroad will come to Russia to impose democracy.
Q. Many Ukrainians say this is not Putin’s war, but Russia’s war. And they criticize Navalni for sharing his imperialist ideas.
R. It makes me sad to hear those things because they are not true. Navalny has assured on countless occasions that he supports the Ukrainian borders of 1991, with Donbas and Crimea included. I understand that a Ukrainian now hates anything Russian. How could he not when a Russian missile has killed his family? But I am hopeful that one day—perhaps not in our generation, but in the next—there will be a way to rebuild the relationship between the two peoples.
Q. Do you expect any changes from the presidential elections next March?
R. They will be very symbolic. We already know the result: Putin will have 85% support with 85% participation. We are not confident in changing those results. But we’re going to use the weeks before the election, when people tend to be more open to political debate, to inject as much information as we can. We will use all our resources to convince the population that Putin is not a good idea for the future.
Q. Navalny was sentenced in August to another 19 years in prison. Does he have any chance of influencing the Russian political agenda?
R. The number of years does not matter. Now it’s been 19 years. But then he will be accused of terrorism and there will be 35. Then there will be more. In reality, he faces a life sentence. The only question is: will it be Putin’s life or Navalny’s? Navalny will only be released the day Putin falls.
Q. What if Putin’s replacement is worse than Putin himself?
R. Even if it is worse, you will have to make some gestures. The normal thing would be for him to try to show society that a new leader is arriving and try to negotiate the lifting of sanctions, for which he could propose the release of political prisoners.
Q. How is Navalny feeling?
R. He is in an extremely bad situation, in continuous solitary confinement. No type of treatment is given. He is in the hands of the same people who tried to kill him when they poisoned him. But we don’t really know the details. His lawyers have been arrested. The letters we send you are censored. We can send him postcards with meaningless messages and he can reply things like, ‘I’m fine.’ That’s all.
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