In the middle of the budget crisis and the debates about the debt brake, Markus Söder is calling for new elections. A political scientist explains what lies behind this demand.
Berlin – Markus Söder has barely arrived in Berlin for a meeting with his Union colleagues when he already has a message for the federal government: “The whole traffic light construct doesn’t work,” explains the CSU boss on the news service X (formerly Twitter). The inner substance of the traffic light parties is dissolving, the centrifugal forces in the coalition are great and Germany is in a national crisis, believes Söder. Clear words on Monday in response to the budget crisis.
But behind this there is no pure criticism of the government, but also a promotion of one’s own political minds. Because the second message that Markus Söder brought with him is: The Union is ready – not as an opposition, but as a governing party. He doesn’t believe that the traffic light still has the power to overcome problems and “the Chancellor is ignoring and keeping quiet about them,” says Söder.
That’s why the traffic light government should ask the question of trust, “not in parliament, but in front of the German people.” That means new elections, ideally parallel to the European elections on June 9, 2024, as Söder advises.
Political scientist: Only Scholz can ask the question of trust
But is such a demand even realistic? “New elections can only happen if Chancellor Olaf Scholz asks the Bundestag for a vote of confidence, loses it and asks the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag,” explains Professor Jürgen Falter, political scientist at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz Ippen.Media. If no other person with an absolute majority in the Bundestag is elected Chancellor, the Bundestag can then call new elections.
This means that new elections are only in the hands of the traffic light. And according to Falter, this scenario is currently “very unlikely, as it would mean an almost certain election defeat for the coalition parties.” According to the RTL/ntv trend barometer from last week, the traffic light coalition would currently only have a combined 34 percent. The FDP is currently only at five percent. In this respect, the FDP “should be the most afraid of new elections of the three coalition parties,” says Falter.
Union is currently number one in the polls – calls for new elections
But the Union takes first place – with 30 percent. But that doesn’t help her much at the moment, because the opposition in the Bundestag cannot call new elections with motions or other political tools. Söder’s demands are “more likely to be interpreted as an instrument in the political battle of opinions,” says Falter. But that doesn’t mean “that new elections might actually be the best way to a more stable, more effective government coalition.”
Theoretically, it would be possible for the Union to co-govern without new elections, “if the Union were content to replace the Greens and FDP as coalition partners of the SPD as junior partners under Chancellor Olaf Scholz,” explains political scientist Falter. But Scholz and his SPD would also have to agree to this.
Söder also thinks a new edition of the grand coalition with the SPD is conceivable. But probably with a Union Chancellor. In his old routine, he rejects the Bavarian black-green bogeyman. Söder only considers Black-Green to be “a good model for good times”, but not for those difficult times. And the FDP is also being brushed off by Söder. At least the CSU boss no longer believes “that the FDP is still able to be a stable government partner in the long term”.
FDP calls on Söder to take “state political responsibility” in Bavaria
Praise and criticism for Söder come from the FDP. At the moment, Markus Söder is still the one in the Union family who supports the debt brake, but “his opinion barometer could change very quickly,” says parliamentary group leader Christian Dürr. Dürr explains that it is somewhat difficult for him to take Söder’s federal political “interjections” “really seriously.” “Now it’s about taking on state political responsibility – also for the Bavarian budget.”
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