Soon after the start of it One todayMonday’s debate makes it clear how much the party leaders want to warn each other in the final campaign days. PVV leader Geert Wilders starts on the subject of migration about GroenLinks-PvdA leader Frans Timmermans, who is not even on stage at that moment. Dilan Yesilgöz (VVD) and Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) are there, and because according to Wilders they are unclear about a cabinet with the PVV, he explicitly addresses their voters. “A vote for NSC or VVD could mean that GroenLinks-PvdA will have control, but there is only one way to prevent that: make the PVV as big as possible.”
The final phase of the election campaign has turned into a strategic joust in recent days. Instead of focusing on substantive themes, the leading parties of the major parties emphasize possible coalition formation and thus try to persuade voters to make a strategic vote. Frans Timmermans and Rob Jetten have warned in recent days of an “extreme right-wing cabinet” now that the PVV is rising in the polls. This dynamic of right versus left is unfavorable for Pieter Omtzigt’s NSC, who presented himself in this campaign as a middle-of-the-road politician who can work with both the right and the left.
Because four parties appear to have a chance of becoming the largest, there are quite a few voters who are considering a strategic vote on Wednesday, new research from One today and I&O. This plays a major role among voters who want to vote GroenLinks-PvdA: more than half do this partly from a strategic point of view, otherwise they would vote for D66, SP or Volt, for example. These voters indicate that they indeed want to reduce “the risk of a right-wing cabinet.”
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Pioneering role
With strategic voting you have no guarantee of success, says political scientist Tom van der Meer (University of Amsterdam). “The campaign and media dynamics have been about the question for weeks: who will be the biggest? But that is not what House of Representatives elections are about. The largest party in the Netherlands is becoming smaller and smaller, it mainly has symbolic value.” Van der Meer acknowledges that the largest party in the Netherlands is traditionally given “the leading role” in the formation, but according to him, this does not guarantee that it can also lead a cabinet.
Especially if the PVV or GroenLinks-PvdA win, the question is whether other parties want to make a cabinet with Prime Minister Wilders or Timmermans possible, says Van der Meer. In the case of the PVV because many other parties have difficulty with Wilders’ anti-rule of law proposals, in Timmermans because numerically a coalition with left-progressive allies seems impossible. “It is perfectly legitimate to vote strategically, but a strategic vote has an uncertain outcome. You are pursuing a goal that you cannot achieve with your own one voice.”
With many voters still floating and thinking strategically, there is still a lot to be gained in the final debates on TV. Bee One today D66 leader Rob Jetten reacted strongly to his competitor Timmermans when he accused him of not having solved the nitrogen problem in Rutte IV. Jetten immediately reminded Timmermans that the GroenLinks-PvdA leader has already abandoned the target of halving emissions by 2030 during this campaign. “We are not going to save the climate if progressive politicians do not show a backbone,” Jetten snapped.
On the theme of migration, Wilders also targeted Yesilgöz, whom he accused of speaking strong campaign language about migration, but not realizing it in practice. “The VVD has done the opposite for ten years, breaking asylum record after record.” Yesilgöz repeated her mantra that Wilders wants to “destroy” the Netherlands with his ‘close borders’ policy, but does not rule out cooperation with the PVV.
That strategy, deployed by Yesilgöz in August when she became party leader, is not working out very well for the VVD. Although the party has been stable in the polls for quite some time, the PVV in particular seems to be benefiting from the opening that Yesilgöz offered. The PVV was in the doldrums in the polls until August, but has continued to rise steadily since the VVD no longer excluded Wilders’ party.
From the One todaysurvey on Monday shows that 43 percent of voters who are considering the PVV on Wednesday also do so for strategic reasons. These voters, who otherwise say they would go for parties such as FVD, JA21 or BVNL, think that only the PVV has a serious chance of governing in a right-wing cabinet.
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NRC Voting Assistance: this is stated in the 2023 election programmes
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