Arkady Moshes, Program Director of the Foreign Policy Institute, estimates that Russia is not seeking the same clear end result with its activities.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has at least accepted the activities of the Russian authorities on Finland’s eastern border, estimates the program director of the Institute for Foreign Policy Arkady Moshes.
“It is impossible to say from Finland whether the initiative came from him, but at least the approval must have come,” says Moshes in a phone interview.
More and more third-country nationals from Russia started arriving in Finland in mid-November. The information from behind the border suggests that they have been deliberately directed in the direction of the Finnish border.
HS reports earlier on Sunday based on the information provided by a hotel clerk from Kostam, that the employees of the Russian border guard apparently take people directly to the Finnish border.
Moshes according to it is clear that the change in the operation of the Russian border guard is not its own invention. The Border Guard operates under the FSB, Russia’s security service, but Moshes does not consider it likely that the decision even came from the FSB.
“Yes, it must have been a high-level political decision. Not necessarily at the highest level, but it must have been approved,” he says.
Moshes does not believe that Russia would seek the same clear end result with its activities. Instead, the events on the eastern border should be viewed as part of Russia’s broader strategy, which aims to weaken the West.
“[Suomen raja] is one front line that belongs to the context of the struggle between Russia and the West,” he says.
“That goal doesn’t have to be simple, like ‘Russia wants Finland out of NATO.'”
Moshes compares Russia’s actions to the old Chinese method of execution, the “death of a thousand blows”, where the victim was killed one small blow at a time.
“You don’t create one crisis that immediately turns the situation around 180 degrees. Instead, so many existing problems are created or taken advantage of that it makes it difficult for Western countries to make decisions,” he says.
In the end, in an ideal situation for Russia, the West should focus its forces on things other than the war in Ukraine or even return to the negotiating table with Russia.
Moshes according to this, it is theoretically entirely possible that many more people would appear on Finland’s eastern border than at present.
“There is no limit – as they say, only the sky is the limit,” he says.
Moshes compares the current situation in Finland to the events on the borders of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania with Belarus. In 2021, large numbers of people started arriving at the Polish border from Belarus. Since then, they have also been sought in Latvia and Lithuania.
“We are talking about tens of thousands of people, and Belarus is a small country compared to Russia,” Moshes reminds.
Finland the government decided this week to completely close the busiest crossing points on the eastern border.
According to Moshes, from the point of view of information warfare, the situation is favorable for Russia, but it would also have been useful if Finland had not closed its borders. Then the Russian administration would have called Finland and the EU weak.
“This is for Russia win-win-situation. Now that the border was closed, it is said that the act is Russophobic and that Finland is no longer independent but obeys the orders of the Americans.”
However, Moshes reminds us that interference is not cheap for Russia either, and in the end it may also receive attention that it does not want.
“If the new arrivals stay on the Russian side of the border in the winter, it is Russia’s job to take care of them and provide food, warmth and health services.”
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