What comes after the counterattack?
In a press interview with the British magazine The Economist, General Valery Zalughny, Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Army, admitted the failure of the Ukrainian counterattack, given that despite the declared goals, only a few square kilometers were recovered from the Russian army. According to Zaloghny, only technological progress would allow the Ukrainian army to reclaim Crimea and the territories it has lost since February 24, 2022.
In fact, Russia enjoys air superiority over Ukraine, of which only a third of its fighter planes, numbering 120, were ready for operation at the beginning of the war. It is true that Ukraine can count on the Western promise of F-16 fighters, which are supposed to arrive next year, but in the meantime, the Russian army will have enough time to improve its air defenses. Then, with the strengthening of air defenses on both sides, neither of them will be able to claim to achieve air control, even though it is strategic, and Kiev will not be able to hope to achieve a military breakthrough. As for the control of drones, with which Kiev expressed its satisfaction, it will not be more decisive, given the Russian progress in the field of electronic defense.
However, Russia is also superior in demographic terms, as there are four Russians for every Ukrainian. According to General Zalogny, Moscow does not care about the human toll of its forces, while Ukrainian public opinion is pressuring Kiev to save human lives.
Thanks to Western assistance, the Ukrainian army was able to clear mines and penetrate some Russian defenses. But the Russian army has also improved its military production capacity and is now able to replant mines remotely, negating the Ukrainian advance. In general, this war can be divided into three stages: the Russian advance, which did not reach Kiev, thanks to the mobilization of the Ukrainian resistance, then a very effective Ukrainian counterattack in November 2022, but insufficient to the point of leading to the collapse of the Russian army. Now we are in the third stage of the war: the war of positions and attrition.
But only a technological breakthrough could make maneuver warfare possible again and allow Ukraine to regain some territory. Indeed, the prospect of a military solution to the conflict is slim, and it will be impossible to achieve Ukrainian goals for the war, namely regaining the territory that Kiev has lost since 2014.
From here, the features of the most likely scenario become clear: the fighting will continue until it turns into a war of attrition, when there will no longer be a sufficient number of Ukrainian fighters compared to Russian soldiers. This is because if the West helps Ukraine financially and does not send soldiers, the gap between Russia and Ukraine will always remain the same. According to General Zalogny, although Western aid gave Ukraine a significant advantage in terms of equipment, the Russian army has since been able to reorganize its ranks. But will Western, especially American, aid continue?
How long will this trench warfare, so deadly given a few square kilometers of territory, last? Russia may say that it was able to regain part of the Ukrainian lands and that it was also able to restore its greatness. However, even if Russia is able to retain part of the lands it seized by force in February 2024, the West will turn to the process of rebuilding Ukraine. As for the issue of its accession to the European Union, that is another topic that should be discussed in a rational manner and not in an emotional manner.
* Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations – Paris
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