Israel arms sales and bad publicity
“We cannot prevent every water pipe be blown up and every tree uprooted. We can’t prevent every homocide of a worker in an orchard or a family in their beds. But it is in our power to set a high price for our blood, a price too high for the Palestinian community, the Arab armies or the Arab governments to think it is worth paying… it is in our power to induce the Arab governments to renounce the policy of force towards Israel, transforming it into a demonstration of weakness.” Thus he spoke Moshe Dayan, one of the first military leaders of newly formed Israel. His vision was of structured, calculated force aimed at deterring both the Arabs of neighboring nations and the Palestinians.
Never like today his words seem prophetic. What Hamas did, precisely striking the largely automated defenses of the wall separating Israel from Gaza, was a highly demonstrative act of violence. Hamas’ action demonstrated the (in)capacity of multiple advanced technologies deployed by Israel to defend the wall surrounding Gaza. The The issue is much more serious than it appears: Israel is a nation perceived, in business terms, as a viable producer of advanced weapons. Striking Israel, demonstrating the ineffectiveness of its automatic defenses, could be a serious blow to the military industry which sells its products and services very well abroad. Let’s take stock.
Low tech vs high technology
The September 9, 2001 about twenty Saudi terrorists armed with $5 box cutters managed to destroy the security of Americans. They were coordinated remotely by the son of the richest Saudi family who operated from a cave. The security that every American citizen had was based, in part at least, on the budget of the Pentagon and other secret service agencies: the amount allocated then amounted to just under $400 billion (today we are at over $800). In a tragically similar way Israel discovered that a toy drone costing $60, a rocket built from what happens (approximate cost $600) and a paraglider with a fan (approximate cost $6000) can pierce one of the largest (as Israel declared until October 7) ground-to-air defense systems in the world . Hamas managed to break through Israel’s safety net by exploiting two simple concepts: low technology and Israeli digital hubris.
Let’s first talk about technological arrogance. The governments of Western democracies are increasingly infiltrated and victimized by arms company lobbyists, complex bureaucracy and an extreme capitalist vision. These three elements, and their consequences, directly affect the war supplies of every Western nation. Simply put, it is convenient for gun manufacturers to sell at the highest possible price. This is demonstrated by the project to donate another million artillery shells to Ukraine: previously they cost around $2000 per piece, today the increased demand has been accompanied by an increased price ($8000 per piece); with all due respect to Zelensky.
In the West (a reality of which Israel considers itself part) there is misplaced confidence in the concept that greater warfare technology corresponds to greater security.
It is partly true but, as demonstrated by 911, Israel and all the other asymmetric wars (ISIS, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan), this rule, this technological hubris is often dangerous. Simply put, these new technological toys often serve more to reassure the population (ignorant of war matters) and the equally ignorant politicians elected by ignorant voters.
The second themeHamas’ lowtech approach, needs to be clarified. For some time, American exercises in low-tech vs. hi-tech war scenarios have demonstrated how a less technological army, in numerous scenarios, can be a winner or at least not a loser. The American exercises against a hypothetical Middle Eastern army (perhaps Shiite) have demonstrated how lethal an asymmetric attack could be for a deployed or transiting American naval fleet.
Hamas seems to confirm this thesis: for too many years Western-Israeli propaganda they painted the Palestinian fighters as a bunch of apes with clubs. Palestinian fighters have carefully studied their enemy (Israel) for flaws in digital security, flaws in vision and military tactics. Add to this that Hamas has acquired, in recent years, technologies which, as Ukraine demonstrates, can make the difference even against a modern army. 3D printers to build drone and missile parts, radio systems, lasers suitable for sculpting weapons and/or spare parts. In the bowels of Gaza, as the IDF also explains, small factories for creating bullets and bombs are scattered. The most notable thing is that the majority of Hamas’s weapons were produced locally, making Israel’s zealous border controls almost useless. In truth, part of the raw materials used by Hamas derive from the recovery of pieces of missiles or artillery shells launched by Israel over the years, or remnants of previous clashes, when Israel entered Gaza.
Economy, technology and mathematics
Before attacking, it is likely that Hamas did the math: its missiles, launched in large numbers, always cost less than a single Israeli Iron Dome interceptor ($50,000 a piece). Many of Hamas’ light weapons, when not built locally, come from the black market in American weapons, which arose following the US withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. The latest lesson on low-tech strategies and weapons comes from Ukraine: from Yoga mats, useful for cover the heat signature of a human, to militarized civilian economic drones, Ukraine has paved the way for the dehumanization of the conflict, at least for the most dangerous or deadly roles (kamikaze).
This brings us to Israeli technological industrial scenario and its fallibility originating from excessive trust in high-tech tools and strategies, a characteristic that over the years has allowed Israel to sell billions of armaments around the world.
Technological defense: Israeli business
In June 2023 the Israeli Ministry of Defense announced that the sales, for the year 2022, they were record-breaking: $12.5 billion. About 1/4 of sales were accounted for by drones and ancillary services. Not bad considering the size of the Israeli industry. The drones that hit the walls surrounding Gaza were certainly less advanced but no less effective. There are over 120 defense industries in Israel, as well as related supply chains. In fact, one of the most prosperous industries in the country is that of weapons.
According to the data from the Israeli Ministry of Defense, of the total exported in 2022, we have 25% of drones and similar. Missile defense systems (Iron Domes style) are at 19%. 13% are radar systems and 10% observation systems and advanced optronics (such as the cameras that were on the wall surrounding Gaza). Added to this are 6% communications units and 6% cybersecurity and espionage systems (such as those that were supposed to protect the nation from Hamas’ attack).
With the failure of the Israeli defense, supported by the entire national technological apparatus, it remains to be seen whether Israel’s buyers will still be inclined to go shopping in 2024. After all, one of the most effective ways to demonstrate the validity of a weapon is to demonstrate it in the field.
Following the war successes Russians in Ukraine, supported by domestically produced drones from Iran and Chinese civilian systems, all manufacturing companies, and related states, have seen an increase in drone orders. The new Russian kamikaze drone Lancet for example, which broke through numerous Leopard and Challenger armor, is the most requested “Christmas gift” from every third world state: with the Lancet every third world country can have low-cost aviation cost effective against armored vehicles.
Israel’s desire for justice to date has been expressed, for the most part, by using old generation heavy armaments (Merkava 4 tanks, F16 fighter-bombers, mobile artillery): all things we have already seen that Hamas knows well, especially the Merkava 4 tanks. Any Israeli victory over Hamas, an implausible total victory as announced by the IDF leaders, will have to pass for a revival of Israel’s image as a producer of extremely effective advanced weapons.
Many of the weapons sold from Israel they go to non-Western nations that have governments that are sometimes “misunderstood” by the population. Governments that may sometimes require coercive restraint: For Israel, if it wants to increase sales of drones and other weapons systems, it will be appropriate to demonstrate the effectiveness of its products in Gaza.
@enricoverga
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