Experts who spoke to Sky News Arabia from Washington, Riyadh, and Amman believe that the American reinforcements are closely linked to the growing tension between the United States and Iran, and the unrealistic prospects of the conflict sliding into a regional war.
What is the THAAD missile system?
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced, on Saturday night, the dispatch of the THAAD air defense system, amid increasing tensions in the region.
THAAD is considered one of the most advanced American air defense systems, with allies around the world competing to obtain it, according to Reuters.
The THAAD and Patriot systems are air defense systems designed to shoot down short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.
Rising tension between Washington and Tehran
American writer specializing in defense and security affairs, Lara Seligman, says that the conflict in Gaza threatens a new wave of attacks against the United States in the Middle East, which Tehran could stand behind, which represents enormous risks of a possible regional war in light of the continued escalation.
According to Seligman, American forces in multiple locations throughout Iraq and Syria were attacked by drones that targeted their positions on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to what the Pentagon announced.
The American writer believes that these events combined add a dangerous new element to the fighting in Gaza and deepen fears that Iran will incite violence in other parts of the Middle East, which will expand the war in Israel and attract other countries.
Therefore, the United States has been working for months to strengthen its military presence in the region, sending thousands of Marines, and sending more F-35 fighter aircraft and A-10 attack aircraft to American bases.
What are the chances of the conflict slipping away?
Kamal Al-Zaghoul, an expert specializing in international relations and American affairs, says that the repercussions of the regional war are linked to four factors: The internal factor in Israel, the regional factor linked to Iran, the international factor linked to Russia and China, and the international factor linked to the international community’s standing with Israel.
Al-Zaghoul explains that as for the internal factor, there is dissatisfaction with the Netanyahu government and there is a division within the Israeli government, between the government and the army, and also between veterans and the army. This may cause chaos in making the right decision in Israel and make it difficult to adopt a sound strategy, because the Israeli war government was formed from There are many political competitors, and this leads the United States to intervene to defend with a specific strategy and not a scorched earth policy, and this will take time to implement.
Regarding the regional factor related to Iran, Al-Zaghoul says that it depends on the extent of the ability of the Israeli forces to enter Gaza, occupy it, destroy it, and displace its people. When Iran feels that it will lose its ally, it will order Hezbollah to intervene to confuse Israel until efforts reach a solution, and the outbreak of a major regional war depends on the entry of the forces. America will have all its weight in the war, which is unlikely, but it will give Israel all the defensive and offensive means.
As for the third factor, which is the presence of Russian battleships and the Russians’ support for Lebanon, Syria, and Hamas, it may accelerate the Americans’ adoption of a new plan for calm to manage the American-Russian competition in the region and adopt intensive diplomacy and attempt to calm things down.
The fourth factor: the international community’s siding with Israel will give it justification to settle Gaza on the ground, and this will contribute to the aggravation and expansion of the war so that it becomes regional with Israeli recklessness and not with the recklessness of Hezbollah and Hamas.
Long-term American strategy in the Middle East
According to Al-Zaghoul, there appears to be pressure on the American administration to adopt a long-term strategy in the region, through a permanent and continuous presence in the Mediterranean, to prevent the outbreak of a regional war that would benefit the Russians and Chinese and distort America’s image at home and before the democratic systems in the world.
Therefore, what appears on the horizon is a strategy to combat terrorism again, through presence and deterrence, as it did in Syria in the east of the Euphrates and in Iraq in Mosul, and the occurrence of the regional battle is directly proportional to the approaching end to Hamas and the loss of its influential card in the resistance. If we get closer to that, the regional war will become closer.
The long-term Israeli strategy will take into account several factors: the issue of prisoners, the destruction of Hamas’ infrastructure, creating a buffer zone on the borders of the Gaza envelope for approximately 5 kilometers, bombing it, completely destroying it and permanently eliminating it, completely abandoning the Strip commercially, cutting off electricity, cutting off water, and not allowing the people of Gaza to work. Within the territories of the West Bank and in the vicinity of Gaza, where Gaza becomes one direction, which is Egypt, and any repercussions of the regional war will depend on the type of strategy that Israel wants to implement and the subsequent escalation between the two parties, Israel and Iran.
Superpower conflicts
Saudi writer and political analyst Saad Abdullah Al-Hamid says that those who follow the scale of the international conflict and the great competition between the United States on the one hand and other international poles such as China and Russia on the other hand find that there has been a significant decline in the American role recently, under the administration of President Joe Biden.
This appears clear in the floundering decisions of the US administration, such as the random withdrawal from Afghanistan and the reduction of military forces in the Gulf region and the Middle East, as well as the US-Chinese quarrels in Taiwan and the Russian-Ukrainian war.
All of these interactions come in the context of the bickering to impose control between the Western camp and the Russian-Chinese camp, which also applies to the current escalation crisis in the Gaza Strip and the intersection of American interests with the spheres of influence of other regional countries.
The conflict in the Middle East seems clear between Washington and Tehran, as America is trying to return to the Middle East after recalculating and trying to reduce Chinese influence, especially in light of Chinese diplomatic interaction in the Arab world during the recent period.
The United States also fears the continuation of the Iranian nuclear project, which represents a great danger to the Israeli side.
The United States’ military presence today is primarily aimed at strengthening Israel’s military ability to confront Iran.
Iran’s arms in the Middle East directly threaten Israel, something the United States does not tolerate.
The historical reinforcements come within the framework of the American side’s desire to return to the region.
Also, Biden is trying to strengthen his position ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, especially in light of his administration’s failure to reach an agreement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel due to the Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip.
Strengthening the American military presence may lead to the conflict slipping into something worse, especially in light of the presence of Iran’s arms and its willingness to enter the heart of the conflict in the region.
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