An experiment published on the preprint server arXivdemonstrated that coin tosses are not fair is that you can influence the outcome knowing the initial position of the coin, but how? In this article, we will find out how this “trick” works and how to use it to our advantage.
First let’s talk about coin tosses, one of the oldest and best known methods for the awarding of a victory or a choice, which up to now certainly most of us he considered it the most casual method and therefore, at the same time, more honestbut what if I told you that coin flips they’re not really random? Or that you can increase your chances of winning a coin toss bet with a simple trick? If you like mathematics and challenges, you will certainly discover something surprising as you continue reading.
Coin tosses come often used to decide who goes first, who will win, or who will kick off in a soccer matcha method that seems right, you will assume that since the coins have two sides and you introduce a random element (flipping the coin and catching it), the chances of your choice coming up are 50/50 (or one in two), despite this the researchers crunched the numbers, examining the impressive figure of 350,757 coin flipsand they discovered that coin flips aren’t 50/50 after all, but you can tilt the odds slightly in your favor.
How is it possible? The explanation lies in the physics and geometry of money. When you flip a coin you introduce a small amount of wobble into it, this wobble causes the coin to rotate around an axis that passes not through the center of the coin, but through a point near the edge. This phenomenon is called precession and causes the money to pass more time in the air with the leading side up. As a result, the coin has a higher probability of ending up on the same side it started on (i.e., “same-side bias”).
This effect was discovered by a group led by the American mathematician Lost Diaconis, which used a specially built machine to flip coins in a controlled manner and recorded the results with a high-speed camera. Diaconis found, from a smaller ideal number of recorded and analyzed coin flips, that coins they fall on the same side they were thrown about 51% of the time.
Another team of researchers wanted to see if this effect also manifested itself in people’s coin flips, so they recruited 48 people to cast 350,757 coins from 46 different currenciesfinding that, overall, there was a 50.8% probability that the coin would land on the same side it was tossed from. Analyzing the data further, they found that coin flips are highly variable across people, with some showing a strong same-side bias and others having none at all: coin flips can fall (even slightly) on whoever throws them.
Percentage margins may not seem like much, but over time they could lead to an advantage, for example if you can convince someone to bet on coin flips with you for 1,000 throws in a row.
The extent of the observed bias can be illustrated using a betting scenario, if you bet one euro on the outcome of a coin toss (i.e., paying 1 euro to participate and winning 0 or 2 euros depending on the outcome) and repeat the bet 1,000 times, knowing the initial position of the coin toss, you earn an average of 19 euros.
This is more than the casino’s advantage for 6-deck blackjack against an optimal strategy player, where the casino would earn 5 euros on a comparable bet, but less than the casino’s advantage for single-zero roulette, where the casino would earn 27 euros on average.
How to fool “lucky lady” with coin flips
So, how can you use this trick to your advantage? First, you have to be able to control the initial position of the coin when you flip it. You can do this by holding the coin between your thumb and forefinger and sliding it up with a gentle twist. This way, you can choose whether to flip the coin with heads or tails facing up. Next, you need to be sure to toss the coin high enough to make it spin at least once. Finally, you need to be skilled at picking it up and displaying it without accidentally spinning it.
If you follow these steps, you will have a slight but significant chance of winning the bet. Obviously, this trick is not foolproof and you might still lose some tosses, plus you might get caught by your opponent if he notices that you are manipulating the coin in some way, so Use this trick with caution and only for fun.
Next time you have to decide something with a coin toss, be sure to hide the starting position of the coin to make the game more fair, or if you want to challenge someone to a coin toss bet, try using this math trick and see if you manage to win more often. But remember: all that glitters is not gold!
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