Macron, Von der Leyen and Meloni
The EU is increasingly looking East: enlargement plan for 9 new countries
Not just NATO, the European Union is also looking increasingly eastward. Effect of war in Ukraine, which could give the decisive push to the enlargement of the group of 27, which despite having talked about it a lot in recent years has so far never taken the decisive step. A step that could now even take longer than expected and go well beyond Balkansreaching the traditional “home garden” of Russia. Not only Ukraine, but also Moldova and Georgia. Two possible entries that Moscow would most likely not like very much.
Since 2013, when the Croatia was admitted, the enlargement process now seemed to have reached its limit. Until some time ago it was truly impossible to imagine an expansion to the gates of the Caucasus. Now no longer. On 6 October the 27 national leaders of the EU will meet in the Spanish city of Granada to define the path of this enlargement and reflect on how a reshaped union would work. The path to EU membership could be paved for up to nine new countries: including Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Ukraine, Moldova and possibly Georgia.
The accession of this group of countries would effectively make the EU the largest economic bloc in the world, on a par with the United States, but it will require deep reforms of the kind that current aspirants have so far avoided. From the EU point of view, the transformation from a club of 27 members today to perhaps 36 tomorrow it will only be possible if its internal mechanisms are revised. This will include changing the balance of power between the bloc’s central institutions and its national capitals, for example by making the club less hostage to the whims of a single country.
Maxi EU at 36? This time Macron says yes
In the recent past, it was for example Emmanuel Macron to freeze the enlargement process to the Balkans, slowing down the ambitions of many others including Italy, which traditionally looks favorably on the integration of the countries on the other side of the Adriatic Sea. Yet, this time the wind seems to have changed. And according to the prestigious British weekly The Economist, the date of 2030 for the entry of new countries could be hypothesized.
In May 2022 Macron appeared to rule out the prospect of Ukraine becoming a member, saying it would take “several decades”. Now France has become an unexpected champion of enlargement. Other current EU members have always been more sympathetic to the idea. The government coalition agreement of Germany, signed in 2021, commits it to welcoming the Western Balkans. Central Europe also wants Ukraine and other countries to join for security reasons.
The undertaking remains anything but simple. Suffice it to say that until a few days ago there was a fear that a conflict could break out between two of the nine candidates, Serbia and Kosovo. Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine they have Russian troops on their territory. Bosnia is still torn apart by ethnic tensions that led to the disintegration of Yugoslavia in the nineties. The internal political situation in other countries makes the scenario very fluid.
Given the traditional rigor of Brussels, it would be difficult to imagine the eventual success of the plan. But now the member countries perhaps feel more under threat from external powers, primarily Russia but not only. Bringing new countries on your side could alleviate some fears. Enough to probably review some rules. Starting from those on the budget, and then moving on to decision-making methods. Currently the European Commission is made up of one member from each country. In a union of 36the Economist points out, some countries may have to give up the right to a commissioner.
And we could then arrive at what would be a revolution: decisions by qualified majority, eliminating the various veto rights that have often blocked the EU’s choices.
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