Giorgia Meloni and the November agenda
The prime minister’s strategy: playing the “victim”
Exactly as Affaritaliani.it wrote before anyone else, the theme of a technical government or national responsibility to “save Italy” jumped onto the front pages of all the newspapers. With lots of denials starting from that of the prime minister Giorgia Meloni even from Malta. But the “smell of crisis” in the Roman political palaces remains strong and intense. So much so that – according to what appears to Affaritaliani.it – there is a date to mark in red on the calendar and it is November 17th, when the ratings agencies’ assessments on the health of the Italian public finances will arrive.
Not just Moody’s, as he explained Affaritaliani.it this morning, but also S&P and Fitch. The concern at Palazzo Chigi is that of a downgrade of Italian securities which could become almost junk. With an inevitable increase in the spread and the yields of government bonds, therefore the costs for the public coffers. Meloni, according to the most credible rumors, would already have a counter-move ready to block the attempt at a technical government led (probably) by Giuliano Amato. Go to the political elections immediately, as early as the end of January or the beginning of February 2024.
The leitmotif of the electoral campaign is already ready: play the victim. An international conspiracy by strong powers against the Italian right. But she, Giorgia, is stronger than the rating agencies and the financial markets and is going to the vote to win overwhelmingly and return to Palazzo Chigi more determined than before. Obviously Fratelli d’Italia would always be an ally of the League and Forza Italia, but the prime minister aims to get her fill of votes (well over 30%) to relegate the other centre-right parties to the role of supporting players.
Germany’s attitude towards migrants would also be included in the victim’s strategy, which, as the Defense Minister explained Guido Crosetto (FdI), on the one hand closes the borders and on the other finances the NGOs that bring irregular migrants to Italy. Although the upcoming regional elections in Hesse and Bavaria could make Olaf Scholz change his attitude, given that his majority is very divided and the SPD is heading towards an electoral defeat.
And the Budget Law? Nothing. Temporary exercise, since the indexation of pensions to inflation (another indication that we will go to the polls soon) has already been brought forward to November. Even better if there will be a situation of greater difficulty with the provisional exercise so Meloni will be able to blame even more the strong international powers supported and abetted in Italy by the left and the oppositions of Pd and M5S. In short, watch out for November 17th. From there the political earthquake can start with the “victim” Meloni who screws everything up and runs for elections in the middle of winter.
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