Since the end of the Black Sea grain deal in July, Russia has waged a bombing campaign on Ukrainian ports. However, Ukraine has managed to export its agricultural products, vital to its economy, thanks to immense efforts to establish alternative routes. France 24 analyzes the situation together with agro-industrial markets specialist Arthur Portier.
Since the end of the grain deal that provided Kiev with a safe corridor in the Black Sea, Moscow has once again exercised a form of maritime blockade. For two months, only two ships loaded with agricultural products from the port of Chornomorsk, located near Odessa, risked crossing to reach the Bosphorus in Turkey.
Since the end of July, Russia has periodically bombed the main Ukrainian port on the Black Sea – Odessa. Two other smaller ports on the Danube, Izmail and Renit, have also been bombed.
Moscow attacks port, road and railway infrastructure that allows Ukraine to continue its grain exports (wheat, sunflower, corn), as well as its storage capacities, plunging the southern regions of the country into the daily terror of bombings. .
Given Moscow’s desire to curb its agricultural exports, “Ukraine has made the creation of a corridor without an agreement with Russia a priority objective,” as Andrii Klymenko mentioned for the newspaper ‘Le Figaro’. Klymenko is editor of ‘Black Sea News’, a site specialized in the Black Sea.
“In mid-July of this year, Ukraine drew up a new route through its territorial waters and then presented it to the headquarters of the International Maritime Organization. This corridor runs along the coast of the Odessa region, from the Snake Island towards Romanian territorial waters,” said the editor. To allay fears, Ukraine has also created a fund to cover insurance costs for ships wishing to reach Odessa.
However, kyiv depends primarily on the Danube for its grain exports. Since the end of July, a little more than 3 million tons have passed through this route.
Arthur Portier, a consultant for the Agritel company, specialized in the analysis of agricultural and agro-industrial markets, believes that this alternative and more expensive route is having a “somewhat crazy” success, despite the bombings. In an interview for France 24, Portier takes stock of the situation two months after the end of the agreement on grains in the Black Sea.
France 24: Since the end of the agreement, what alternatives has Ukraine found to continue exporting its agricultural production ?
Arthur Portier: The corridor that was launched in August 2022 and lasted until July 18, 2023 allowed the departure of 30 million tons of cereals. But during this time, Ukrainians did not sit still and tried to develop alternatives for their exports. The first is by truck; The second, by train, allows cereals to be transported through a solidarity corridor created by Europe.
France 24: Did Ukraine abandon the sea route to export grain?
AP: No. It also made quite significant investments in the Danube following the destruction of four of Mykolaiv’s five port terminals during the conflict. At Reni and Izmail, two key ports on the river, smaller ships are loaded before heading to the Black Sea, where their cargoes are transferred to larger ships, mainly in Constanta, Romania.
Thanks to these alternative routes, there has been no significant impact on prices. Now, even without the Black Sea corridor, Ukrainians manage to export two to three million tons of grain every month, which is still crazy. This clearly shows the rise of these alternative routes by truck, by train and along the Danube, which work today.
France 24: Does this explain the recent Russian bombing campaign in the Odessa region and on the Romanian border?
AP: Yes, several weeks ago the Russians understood the situation and obviously began strategically bombing the Danube ports. The border between Romania and Ukraine was also bombed. At the moment, this mainly affects storage logistics infrastructures.
France 24: Does the new route in the Black Sea that two cargo ships took in September change the situation?
AP: The Black Sea remains an area where conflict is intense. Retaliation is possible if the Ukrainians load ships without having, I say this in big quotes, “authorization” from the Russians.
The two grain vessels that have used the new corridor do not represent significant volumes, so it does not really change the situation at a global level. But if a ship were hit, it could have significant consequences. I do not see this route as an element of détente. I see it rather as an element that brings even more uncertainty to the market.
France 24: If the ships avoid the Russian blockade in the Black Sea, do you think they will find insurers ?
AP: Yes, but the cost of insurance will be significant. It has always been like this in the Black Sea. It is high because the area presents great risks.
To quickly reach Romanian waters, it is best to follow the coast, knowing that there are always sea mines. So you have to be careful. In the past, military escorts have been set up, a type of zodiac that accompanies ships to try to detect floating mines. All of this has a cost, that’s a fact.
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