There are two issues that had the call for applications stuck. Brunette for the selection of your gubernatorial candidates in the nine state elections that will take place in June 2024: gender quotas and whether or not applicants resign. In next year’s elections, at least four of the nine candidates will have to be women and there was debate over whether or not they would have to resign from their positions. Martí Batres on Monday had declared that those who will seek CDMX would have to resign, but Mario Delgado He clarified that resignation was not a condition and that, furthermore, there would be no proselytizing campaign as we saw with the six presidential candidates. There will also be no mirror surveys: they will be carried out directly by Morena and therefore will not be appealable.
Ultimately what is done, as had happened previously, is to centralize internal processes, in order to accommodate gender quotas and the most competitive applicants, but also to resolve more than latent internal conflicts. In six of those nine states in which there will be elections, he has governed since 2018 Brunette and internal conflicts are paradoxically greater.
There are internal clashes in Puebla between Alejandro Armenta and Ignacio Mier, which some say could open the door to a woman, Olivia Salomón. In Veracruz, between Rocío Nahle and the political group of the government secretary, Eric Cisneros (among other things, because Nahle was not born in the state nor has he lived in it for too long) who are fighting for a local option. In Chiapas, it is not known if the candidacy will be decided based on gender and if Brunette and the Green They will go together or each one separately. In Tabasco, the former director of Fonatur, Javier May, is in conflict with the political group of the former governor and Secretary of the Interior, Adán Augusto López. In Morelos, where one of the two worst evaluated governors in the country, Cuauhtémoc Blanco (the other is David Monreal in Zacatecas) has had the idea of trying to seek candidacy for the government of Mexico City, there is an intense internal struggle within and outside the local government (due to the candidacy and the inevitable lawsuits of all kinds that will come against the Blanco administration due to mismanagement and alleged relations with criminal groups). The applicants who have raised their hands are at least nine, only in Morena.
In Mexico City, waiting to see if Blanco registers or not, Omar García Harfuch and Clara Brugada, and the president of Morena, Mario Delgado This Monday he hinted that he could look for that option.
In Guanajuato, where there seems to be no space Brunette, everything could opt once again for Ricardo Sheffield; in Jalisco only MC could decree his own defeat and in Morena the more than controversial Carlos Lomelí continues to appear; In Yucatán Morena could surprise, but the Front looks even more solid.
The decision, as almost always, will be a poll of two (Claudia and the President) with the gender factor and popularity as variables. But it won’t be easy to decide. They say that the four for women in Morena could be for Chiapas, Veracruz, Morelos and some say Puebla, the last three, states where the ruling party will have strong opposition. Most likely the entire scheme will be defined by what happens in Mexico City between Omar and Clara. From that definition all other tokens can be accommodated.
Meanwhile, Marcelo Ebrard finally He didn’t leave Morenacreated a civil association within the party and I think it has run out of options, including that of Citizen movement. The former chancellor has taken too long to make decisions, he has said that in Brunette There was no place for him, while he confirmed that he would stay in the party and in a few weeks he has lost part of the internal support in the party structure. He has to find some political mechanism to keep people united with him and he will try to do it with that association. But that is a short-term option and Ebrard is obliged to make a substantive decision before the end of October.
This is also related to what happens in Citizen movement. Dante Delgado also extended the time and limited the options, waiting for Marcelo to break. As that option seems to be moving away, as Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas has decided not to run for the presidency, given the distance with Enrique Alfaro (the governor of Jalisco where MC has more than half of his votes), an attempt has been made to detonate the option of Samuel García, the young governor of Nuevo León.
I don’t think Samuel will take the plunge: if he does, MC will lose the government of Nuevo León because the congress, dominated by the PAN and the PRI, and confronted with the governor, will elect an interim who is one of their own. Samuel’s license would have to be permanent, he could not return to office. The bet that the young vote will turn around him is relative: it worked in Nuevo León, but who knows if in the rest of the country, particularly outside of large urban concentrations. And everything indicates that the election will also be increasingly polarized between Claudia and Xóchitl. His could end up being a candidacy, like El Bronco’s six years ago, a testimonial one.
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