Is this the long-awaited opportunity for Poland’s opposition? At least the scandal surrounding tens of thousands of illegally issued visas is increasing the pressure on the ruling party PiS.
Munich – How the powerful in Warsaw feel about themselves was recently shown in an election commercial by the right-wing conservative PiS party. In it, a fictitious German ambassador calls PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski to arrange a meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Richard Wagner’s “Ride of the Valkyries” sounds menacingly in the background, then Kaczynski, looking serious, says that these habits are over – and hangs up.
This means that Poland doesn’t let Germany dictate anything to it, not when it comes to pensions, not when it comes to the climate, and certainly not when it comes to migration. It is precisely here that Poland’s right-wing conservative ruling party PiS likes to present itself as a bulwark against the more liberal politics in Brussels or Berlin. But four weeks before the election, the image they created is starting to crack.
Political earthquake in Poland – PiS under pressure after visa revelations
The reason is the revelations about illegally issued work permits to people from Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Independent media and the opposition accuse the Polish authorities of issuing visas in exchange for bribes. The Foreign Ministry is said to have sent lists of names to its consulates in countries such as Nigeria, Uganda and India. The numbers vary: The newspaper “Gazeta Wyborcza” writes of 600,000 visas sold off since 2021, the opposition assumes 250,000, the PiS, which absolutely wants to keep the issue down, 200. Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau, his deputy at the end of August – apparently because of the affair – was fired, rejects any responsibility. “I don’t feel complicit, I’m not thinking of resigning and there is no visa issue,” he said on Monday.
Is it really that simple? The opposition sees it differently and speaks of one of the “biggest scandals in Poland” this century. But observers also consider the topic to be explosive. “The scandal has been bothering the country for a good week now,” says the head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), David Gregosz, to our newspaper. “He has the potential to shake up the election campaign.”
Poland before parliamentary elections – allegations weigh on the ruling party PiS
The matter is stressful for the PiS for two reasons: On the one hand, because it could shake Europe’s trust. As of today, one can assume that the number of illegally issued visas is in the high five to low six figures, says Gregosz. “We don’t know how many people only used Poland as a gateway into the Schengen area and traveled on to other countries such as Germany.” This would be a serious problem, especially for relations with Berlin.
From PiS’s point of view, credibility in their own country is even more important. There are parliamentary elections on October 15th, and in the election campaign the governing party is not only making the mood against Berlin, but also against migration. In view of the allegations, the contradiction between speech and action is enormous.
Despite visa revelations – PiS is further ahead in surveys
It cannot be ruled out that the opposition Citizens’ Platform (PO) around former Prime Minister Donald Tusk will benefit from this, says KAS leader Gregosz. However, there is also something to be said against it: surveys see the PiS still ahead despite the revelations. Their supporters are considered loyal, so many are likely to follow the party narrative that is trying to turn things around. It is said that the dismissed deputy foreign minister is a victim of the media and the opposition. He had tried to take his own life. In addition, the scandal hardly appears at all in the public media. That’s why it doesn’t appeal, especially in rural areas where the PiS is strong.
For Gregosz, who is observing things from Warsaw, the matter is open. “The ruling party has repeatedly weathered crises over the last eight years,” he says, recalling the Pegasus scandal from the beginning of 2022. At the time, the PiS was accused of spying on the opposition using spy software. “Basically a mini-Watergate,” Gregosz says. “But the matter passed the party almost without a trace.”
That’s how it could work now. Tusk, who wants to return to office after nine years, still has a lot of catching up to do. In the most recent polls, his PO was at 26 percent, the PiS at 33 to 35 percent. That wouldn’t be an absolute majority – but it would be a government mandate. (Marcuc Mäckler)
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