The current “Bavarian trend” is explosive. The CSU has to lose in the polls in months of anger over the traffic lights. How can that be?
Today is election day in Bavaria. Yesterday too. And tomorrow. Because postal voting has been running for a long time and, for the first time, more than every second vote is cast beforehand, surveys can no longer be easily dismissed as a “snapshot”. Every moment counts. The current “Bavarian trend” is therefore explosive. Even if his numbers are difficult to explain. How can it be, for example, that a prudent and constructive FDP is still sagging after the Aiwanger quarrels? That the undisputed hard work of a CSU candidate Söder threatens to result in a record low for his party?
Bayern didn’t become leftist overnight, it never will. Around two thirds of voters still gather to the right of the SPD and the Greens, as they have for decades. In the bourgeois camp, however, the balance is shifting more and more. At 36 percent, the CSU only reaches a good half of this spectrum. In other words: The CSU is losing cohesiveness. And this in months of anger over the traffic lights in Berlin and in view of strong Bavarian data in almost all policy areas.
Historically, such challenges have rarely occurred, but when they did, the eternal ruling party overcame them. In the 1950s it marginalized the Bavarian Party, and from the 1980s onwards the Republicans, always over longer distances. It seems like she doesn’t have the strength to do it today. As if she were content with the “that’s just the way it is” reference to fragmented party systems and troubled times. Both are true, but not enough. After this election, the CSU, which is tailored to Söder, will ask itself intensively why it lacks credibility. And what it needs to change in order to convince more than just a good third of Bavarians in the future.
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