The race for the Republican party’s nomination for the November 2024 presidential elections officially began this Wednesday with a debate organized by the Fox network between eight of the candidates who want to represent the party in the general elections.
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However, and as has been happening for months, the show was once again stolen by former US President Donald Trump. The former president, who did not even deign to participate in the exchange, ended up dominating the news cycle both by action and by omission..
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Trump, who in the polls is currently more than 40 points ahead of his closest rival, did not attend the debate, according to him, because it was not a gain for his interests.
“Why should I stay there for an hour or two (…), being harassed by people who shouldn’t even be presidential candidates?” the former president said in an interview to justify his rudeness.
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And it is that, although absent, Trump took the spotlight from the debate. He even counter-scheduled an interview with political commentator Tucker Carlson, broadcast on the X social network, which has become the most viewed in the history of the internet, in just 12 hours it had more than 173 million views..
As Nat Cohen, the New York Times election analyst, put it, the contest between those 8 Republicans seems to have turned into a fight for “runner-up” since none come up to Trump’s ankles.
“Rather than differentiating themselves from Trump or trying to challenge him, his rivals’ strategy seems to be to position himself to his constituents as the most viable alternative in case his candidacy collapses,” says Cohen.
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A “collapse” that could come from several sides. The most likely is that one of the four criminal charges against him will prosper and that voters will be scared at the possibility of choosing a candidate decimating for a conviction who is then easily defeated by President Joe Biden..
Something that is probable, since at least one of the four processes that he faces must be resolved before March of next year, when the Republicans will still be in the middle of the primary elections.
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Without going any further, this week he left a postcard for history on account of Trump’s call to justice in Georgia where he was briefly arrested on Thursday in Atlanta before being released on bail, this time accused of having tried to reverse the results of the 2020 presidential elections in that state, considered key.
Like any other defendant, The 77-year-old former US president was indicted on 13 counts at the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta and pictured in a historic mugshot, according to records released by the sheriff’s office..
Unlike his three previous indictments, Trump was not exonerated from posing for the mugshot, being the first former US president to have such a photograph.
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The image, in which he looks at the camera with a rigid face and a frown, was greatly used by the tycoon who published it through X -he returned to this social network after almost two years of absence- accompanied by the caption “Electoral interference ” and a link to the website of his campaign to raise millions among his followers who saw the event as another proof of the persecution against him.
Even, under the motto “Never give up”, the fundraising committee for his electoral campaign released stickers, t-shirts, mugs and even small coolers for drinks with the print of the photo of Trump’s arrest.
Thus, everything indicates that the former president is determined to use all his appearances before the different courts as part of his electoral campaign, using them as free publicity to insist that what is happening against him is a political persecution of the Democrats. That added to the intention of diverting the Republican discussions by not attending the debates.
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“Without a doubt, it was a strategy that benefited Trump, it was a very intelligent strategy from a political point of view, it was kept at another level, it did not descend to the level of a debate that sometimes seemed like a childish debate, the way the cries were shouted. each other”, said the lawyer and political analyst, Rafael Peñalver.
In his opinion, Trump took a big risk by not attending the debate because someone could have filled his void. “However, no one could do it. Of the candidates who were in the debate, the one who was most presidential was former ambassador Nikki Haley, because she had more knowledge, especially on foreign policy issues, I think her position was very evident, ”added the expert.
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Although dissonant voices were heard in the debate, and some other criticism, it was characterized rather by the prudence with which they handled the Trump case when it arose, to the point of almost evading it in most of their responses.
Its name only came up when the moderator asked to refer to the “elephant” that was not in the enclosure. The question was whether they were willing to support his candidacy for the general elections even if a court had found him guilty of a crime. Very tellingly, everyone except former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson raised their hands in the affirmative.
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For Hutchinson, Trump’s behavior after the 2020 elections and the insurrection that he provoked on January 6, 2021 to prevent Biden’s possession, disqualified him from holding office again. Even former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has emerged as one of the former president’s harshest critics, wavered in his response..
Hutchinson and Christie are considered exceptions in the race and rank last in voters’ preferences.
Even more telling, every time someone tried to question the ex-president, the public present booed them loudly, to the point that the presenter had to intervene to be allowed to answer.
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Niki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, and US representative to the UN during the Trump administration, tried to present herself as the moderate voice among the candidates, calling for consensus on the explosive issue of abortion and expressing her frontal support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
Apart from Hutchinson, she was the only one who dared to indirectly challenge her former boss by stressing that the economic difficulties facing the US are not attributable to Biden or the Democrats but to excessive spending that occurred during the Trump years in The presidency. But her bet, like those of Christie and Hutchinson, is not popular with the bulk of the electorate that continues to be blindly loyal to the former president.
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Perhaps the one who benefited the most from the debate was Vivek Ramaswamy, a young businessman who has been rising in the polls and who today surpasses even the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, until recently the only one who saw himself with real options against the Ex leader.
Ramaswamy, in fact, said that Trump was the greatest president in US history and that he would issue a presidential pardon in his favor the day after he arrived at the White House.
In addition to labeling climate change an “invention” to slow US economic expansion, he has vowed to end aid to Ukraine to focus on protecting the southern border with the use of the military and building a wall.
“Trump was treated with a kid glove because none wants to antagonize his supporters, who are the majority in the party base. And it says a lot that Ramaswamy is seen as the winner when what he did was defend Trump and channel his ideas” said Kellyanne Conway, who worked in the last Republican administration.
Apart from confirming Trump’s dominance, the debate also served to gauge the Republicans against the issues that resonate with the base and that are likely to mark the battle with the Republicans. The candidates discussed Ukraine, climate change, abortion and the economy.
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Except Haley, they all attacked the Biden administration for the high inflation the country is facing and promised to reduce public spending and cut taxes.
Faced with abortion, an issue that has cost Republicans electorally since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade, all agreed to uphold the decision, but some proposed going further with a federal ban on the practice that would affect states where it is allowed.
In the case of Ukraine, only DeSantis and Ramaswamy were inclined to reduce aid. The others, on the contrary, classified this conflict as an existential one for US supremacy and did not spare words to classify Vladimir Putin as a murderer and dictator.
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The position on climate change also drew a lot of attention. When asked if they considered that the phenomenon was the product of human action, only Haley raised her hand despite the fact that the question came from a young Republican who said that it is one of the issues that most worries people under 30 years of age..
Of course, there is still a long way to go between now and the start of the primary elections in January of next year. But, if this Wednesday’s debate showed anything, it is that Trump, even without getting into the ring, has them all on the brink of a “knock out.”
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
On Twitter @sergom68
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