After the death of Evgheny Prigozhin, who died in the crash of his plane with 9 other people, what happens to Wagner? The mercenary company led by Prigozhin, after months on the front line of the war in Ukraine and in particular in the Bakhmut area, rose to prominence at the end of June with the ‘near coup’: the march towards Moscow, led by Prigozhin, it is stopped about 200 km from the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin. The rift proved incurable: Wagner moved to Belarus and concentrated on operations in Africa. Prigozhin left the scene, along with other leading figures of the organization which now appears in disarray.
The latest news refers to the dismantling of the Wagner Group camp in the village of Tsel, near Osipovichi, Belarus. The news is disseminated in particular by the Belarusian correspondents of Radio Liberty on the basis of satellite images. According to estimates, a third of the tents have already been removed after yesterday’s plane crash in Russia.
According to Radio Liberty, more than 100 out of 273 tents, each of which can accommodate about 20 soldiers, have already been dismantled, consequently more than 2,000 Wagnerians may have left the camp. It is not known where these tents could have been taken and whether the Wagner mercenaries left the territory of Belarus. The satellite images available to the editorial team do not yet show the formation of similar tent cities on the territory of other Belarusian training bases or military units.
There is a possibility that some mercenaries have begun to be transferred to Africa. There are messages about it also in the Telegram channels linked to the Group. But it may also be that some of the Wagnerians will be transferred to other localities in Belarus.
WAGNER AFTER PRIGOZHIN, THE ANALYST: “ORGANIZATION IS NO LONGER”
“Wagner is an organization that belongs to the pastit will no longer exist in the form in which we knew it”, says Alexander Dunaev, expert of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and collaborator of Carnegie Politika, commenting in an interview with Adnkronos the impact of Prigozhin’s death on the organization of mercenaries.
“I think it will dissolve because it is an organization very much centered on Prigozhin’s personality and also subsidized for billions of dollars by the state”, continues the analyst, according to which Moscow, after the failed uprising at the end of June, will no longer want to have “a payroll” an organization that has not been loyal to him.
And as reports circulate that Russia has sent military transport planes to repatriate Wagner fighters stationed in Belarus, Dunaev says there are already other private military companies, starting with Redut, that are ready to take over. Indeed, the transfer of Wagner’s assets in Africa to this company has already begun.
If this ‘handover’ were to be completed “rapidly”, speculates the expert, it is not certain that Russia is destined to lose its influence in those African countries where Wagner was more deeply rooted. “Taking into account that all of Wagner’s activities in Africa were financed by the Russian state, there will be a rescheduling, how it will happen is an open question but Moscow can very well insert another organization”, he specifies.
One of the questions that Prigozhin’s presumed death brings with it is linked to the possibility that his loyalists may now try to take revenge on Putin. Telegram channels close to the founder of Wagner fear “a mysterious plan” that would be implemented in the event of Prigozhin’s death, but it is not entirely clear what it is. “On other channels – explains Dunaev – it is written that leaders loyal to Prigozhin are on the one hand stunned by what happened on the other and very angry. It seems to me difficult to take action against Putin himself, but there could be at least an attempt to hit his high-ranking officers”. To try to reduce the risk of ‘reprisals’, the analyst explains, Moscow is trying to validate the hypothesis, “but for me it’s a hoax”, that the special services are behind the crash of the plane carrying Prigozhin Ukrainians.
Another open question is whether it is correct to consider Putin stronger after what happened. “According to some analyses, Putin, who presumably gave the order to kill Prigozhin, shot himself in the foot because he did not keep his word to the founder of Wagner, who, as evidenced by his presence at the Russia-Africa summit and his own presence on board the plane that yesterday flew between Moscow and St. Petersburg, he felt safe – concludes Duanev – Now that he has struck a person who was part of his system of power, many will have doubts whether to trust him again. This does not help the consolidation of the system, which has already proved to be weak in the management of the Wagner revolt”.
#Death #Prigozhin #Wagner #news #Russia #scenario