Eurostat, the Eurozone economy uncertain but resilient
“The economy in the Eurozone is still uncertain, but it is resisting and seems to have avoided recession”, confirmed by Eurostat (Statistical Office of the European Commission) reporting that GDP increased by 0.3% between April and June, after a first quarter at 0%. And the data on employment are also in line with a modest but positive 0.2%. Eurostat’s assessments were, for this first half year, quite “fluctuating” as they were conditioned above all by the critical trend of the European locomotive, Germany. In the first quarter there was actually a technical recession but, now, it seems that a little ascent s you begin to glimpse. There are many factors behind this uncertainty: the war in Ukraine, the German crisis, the oil and gas energy crisis.
Italy’s GDP down in the second quarter of 2023: -0.3% according to Eurostat data
Fortunately, however, this “soft” first quarter recession did not continue and the Eurozone got back on track with an increase of 0.3% between April and June. And Germany is also no longer in negative territory, even if its 0% really does have a bit of an effect. But now other economies are starting to show signs of weakness. Among these, first of all, Italy which closed the second quarter in the red (-0.3%) and then the Netherlands with two quarters with a negative sign. Conversely, Spain grew by 0.4% and France by 0.5%. Ireland is in first place in terms of growth with 3.3%, even if the economic dependence on many multinationals does not give a completely realistic picture. On the podium Lithuania, Slovenia and Finland.
Eurostat, the labor market resists and grows by 0.2%
In this economic context, which is certainly not bright, the European labor market resists with difficulty and the employed grow by 0.2% compared to the previous three months. The unemployment rate in the euro area stood at 6.4% in June and, as in the previous two months, remained at its lowest level in the entire historical series. The country with the highest unemployment was Spain followed closely by Greece. Conversely, Germany and the Netherlands had the lowest unemployment rates in June, at 3% and 3.5% respectively. This six-month period goes to show that perhaps the time has come for the European Central Bank to stop the race to raise interest rates, which began about a year ago. And the cooling of prices combined with inflation which fell to 5.5% in June could be two good indications to stop the cost of money and let businesses and people breathe. Will the tough Christine Lagarde seriously think about it?
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