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FromChristian Sturgeon
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A new survey sees the AfD stable at 21 percent. The traffic light parties are suffering. And what role could Sahra Wagenknecht play in the future?
Berlin – For months, the AfD has been in ecstasy. For the time being, hardly anything seems to change. In the current “RTL/ntv trend barometer”, the AfD remains stable at 21 percent – compared to the previous week, the approval for the right-wing populists remained the same.
The strongest force remains the Union of CDU and CSU in the Sunday question, which with 25 percent can put just four percentage points between itself and the AfD. The results for the parties in the traffic light coalition are not very encouraging. Together they come to only 39 percent. While 17 percent of those surveyed would opt for the SPD and 15 percent for the Greens, the FDP is still bogging down at 7 percent. It looks even worse for the Left Party, which has to be content with an approval rating of 4 percent and would therefore miss out on entering the Bundestag. 11 percent of those surveyed would currently vote for one of the other small parties.
AfD remains stable in the polls
In almost all other surveys, the AfD is currently breaking the 20 percent mark. Only the opinion research institute Kantar (Emnid) sees the AfD currently in the downwind. In the survey of August 12, the AfD came to 18 percent and thus lost one point compared to the previous week. In the Allensbach poll of July 27, the AfD reached 18 percent – which, however, represented an improvement on June. Below are the values that the AfD achieves in all relevant polls (as of August 15):
institute | percent |
---|---|
forsa | 21 |
insa | 21 |
Kantar (Emnid) | 18 |
GSM | 21 |
Yougov | 23 |
Infratest dimap | 21 |
Allensbach | 18 |
Research group elections | 20 |
Could Wagenknecht stop AfD soaring?
It is unclear where the path of the AfD will lead in the future. After all, according to an Insa survey for the Picture-Zeitung, a third of Germans imagine voting for the AfD in a state or federal election. On the other hand, the AfD could also get new competition – from Sahra Wagenknecht. If the left-wing politician actually founds a new party, according to the “RTL/ntv trend barometer”, the AfD would have to worry about its own share of voters.
In the survey, three percent of all respondents stated that they “definitely” wanted to vote for a Wagenknecht party. 18 percent would consider the election and “maybe” vote for it. Striking: Among the AfD sympathizers, five percent would immediately switch to the Wagenknecht camp and almost half (48 percent) could imagine doing so. A Wagenknecht party could well shake up the field a bit.
Habeck and Baerbock weaken
There were hardly any changes in the “RTL/ntv trend barometer” when it came to the question of the preferred chancellor. After all, Friedrich Merz was able to make up one percentage point compared to the previous week. In comparison with Olaf Scholz and Robert Habeck, he would now have 18 percent. Habeck, on the other hand, loses one percentage point and receives 15 percent. Olaf Scholz remains unchanged at 21 percent.
If, on the other hand, those eligible to vote had to choose between Annalena Baerbock, Merz and Scholz, the head of the CDU would get 20 percent. 22 percent of those surveyed would still choose Scholz. The foreign minister, on the other hand, lost two percentage points compared to the previous week and came to 16 percent. (cs)
The data on party and chancellor preferences were collected by the market and opinion research institute forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from August 8 to 14, 2023. Database: 2,501 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: +/- 2.5 percentage points.
List of rubrics: © Sebastian Willnow/dpa
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