The extreme right gave the surprise on the electoral night of the primaries in Argentina. The ultra-liberal economist Javier Milei was the most voted candidate with 30% of the votes. Behind, more than two points behind, was the center-right coalition Together for Change, in opposition. The two candidates who were disputing the internal of that alliance, Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, added 28.1% of the votes. The Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, was the second candidate with the most votes, with 21.4%, but Peronism as a whole, in its worst primary elections since 2011, came in third place, with 27%.
With these elections, the candidacies that the different parties will present in the general elections in October have been defined. The Argentine primaries are, above all, a prelude to what can be expected in that first round and the second, scheduled, if necessary, for November 19. After knowing the results this Sunday, a scenario of thirds has been defined that has deepened political uncertainty. These are some of the keys to the results.
Milei broke hegemonies in the provinces
The electoral map of Argentina has been painted purple, the color of La Libertad Avanza, Javier Milei’s party. The economist, who proposes to dollarize the economy, reduce the State to a minimum, repeal the abortion law and defends the sale of organs, was the candidate for president with the most votes in 16 of the 24 provinces, including Córdoba, Santa Fe and Mendoza, three of the main districts. In five territories –Formosa, Chaco, Santiago del Estero, Catamarca and Corrientes– the force with the most votes was Unión por la Patria (Peronism) and in three –City of Buenos Aires, Corrientes and Entre Ríos–, Together for Change won.
In Córdoba, the second largest district, where 8.6% of the population votes, Mieli prevailed with 33.6% of the vote. Juan Schiaretti, governor of the province and candidate of the force We Do for Our Country, which represents a non-Kirchnerist Peronism, was more than six points behind. In Santa Fe, the libertarian obtained 35.19% of the votes and in Mendoza, close to 45% – almost 17 points behind the second, Together for Change.
Milei swept all of Patagonia and in some provinces in the north of the country, such as Jujuy, where Gerardo Morales governs, who shared a ticket with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, or Salta, where he had close to 50% of the support. The La Libertad Avanza candidates in the provinces, however, had performed poorly in the regional elections prior to this Sunday’s primaries. With no structure in the territories, Milei’s party had suffered defeats.
The ruling parties maintain two of the main districts
Peronism has managed to maintain leadership in the province of Buenos Aires, which this Sunday also went to the polls to vote in primaries for governor. It is a Peronist stronghold where 37% of the 35 million Argentines who make up the padrón vote. The current governor, the Peronist Axel Kicillof, from Unión por la Patria, obtained 36.41% of the votes in the province and was located almost 13 points behind the second most voted candidate, Carolina Píparo, from La Libertad Avanza. The Juntos por el Cambio space obtained 32.92% of the votes between the two candidates who faced each other internally, Néstor Grindetti and Diego Santilli.
In the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, the fourth largest district in the country, the victory in the primaries went to Jorge Macri, cousin of former President Mauricio Macri and his candidate for head of government. In the capital, where 7.1% of the voters vote, voters also opted for continuity after 15 years of center-right governments led by Macri. Jorge Macri, who was facing off against Martín Lousteau, obtained 28.7% of the votes –the space as a whole exceeded 55%–; the second most voted was the Peronist Leandro Santoro (22.17%) and Milei’s candidate, Ramiro Marra, touched 13%.
Five forces remain in the race towards October
In these primaries, there was a record number of candidates for president since this vote was first introduced in 2009: there were a total of 22. Five have managed to exceed the 1.5% of the votes needed to continue in the race for the generals. In addition to La Libertad Avanza, Juntos por el Cambio and Unión por la Patria, the formation of Juan Schiaretti, We Do for Our Country, will be able to present itself on October 22 after obtaining 3.83% of the votes and the Frente de Left (FIT-U), which obtained 2.65% of the votes if the support for Myriam Bregman (1.86%) and Gabriel Solano (0.79) are added.
With these results, a scenario of thirds is formed, an unprecedented situation in a country dominated for years by two large coalitions, one Peronist and one center-right. Milei’s irruption has fragmented that scenario and the possibility of a ballot after the October elections is beginning to be considered more forcefully within political spaces. The two main coalitions began the presidential campaign on Sunday with the priority of stopping Milei’s push. All options are open.
record absenteeism
The compulsory nature of voting in the country has always favored high levels of participation. However, in the provincial elections held this year, demobilization at the polls was already beginning to be glimpsed. Participation this Sunday in the primaries was 69.6%, one of the lowest records in presidential elections since the return to democracy in 1983. In the 2019 primaries, the last comparable ones, participation was 76.40 %. For the general ones, society tends to mobilize more than for the PASO ones. That is what the candidates appeal to, who on election day have insisted that people go to vote. In addition, these elections registered a 4.78% blank vote and 1.21% null vote.
How would Congress be made up?
In October, Argentina will also renew a third of its senators and 130 deputies. With results similar to those of this Sunday, the Upper House would be made up of 33 legislators from Unión por la Patria, 27 from Together for Change and Javier Milei’s party would go from having no seats in the Senate to forming a bloc of eight legislators. : Formosa and San Juan would have one libertarian representative each and Jujuy, La Rioja and San Luis would have two. In this chamber, the quorum is reached with 37 legislators.
The Lower House would be made up of 107 legislators from Together for Change, 94 from Unión por la Patria and 40 libertarians –currently there are three–. The sum of the deputies of La Libertad Avanza and Juntos por el Cambio would reach their own quorum, according to these projections, to advance projects without the need to negotiate with other forces. The most radical core of the center-right coalition winked at Milei on election night, so it would not be strange to think that their forces could unite in Congress. However, it would be necessary to see if the deputies who do not make up that hard core would join.
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