Electoral political polls today 9 August 2023
POLITICAL ELECTION SURVEYS – To photograph the “synchronous” decline in the parties of Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte is a survey by Euromedia Research, the institute directed by Alessandra Ghisleri reported by the Press. Well, the numbers confirm the negative trend: the Democratic Party returns to pre-Schlein values and has lost 0.2 percent since the last survey in mid-July, to settle at 20.8. More marked drop for the grillini who lose 0.5 of their voting intentions for a “round” 16 percent. On the left, small numbers and some movement: Alleanza Verdi and Sinistra and +Europa, stopped respectively at 2.2 and 2.5 per cent, gain 0.2 per cent. Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva is stable at 4 percent, Carlo Calenda’s share on the rise passes to 4.3.
The center-right coalition registers 44.8 percent and 53.3 percent of voters consider Giorgia Meloni’s government “stable” and “firm”. figure in cresicta compared to June and July. Brothers of Italy is always the first party, stable at 27.2 percent. Matteo Salvini’s League loses 0.3 and stops at 9.8 percent of the explanations of vote, Forza Italia gains two decimals (7.3 percent). Among the “other parties” surprise for the political force led by Gianluigi Paragone For Italy (formerly Italexit) which compared to July gains half a percentage point and stands at 2.2 percent.
HOW POLLS ARE MADE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by polling companies according to precise scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analysed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for political parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.
Generally a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that the pollsters face the greatest difficulty. Interviews for electoral political polls are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion poll companies rely on specialized companies.
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