The start of an El Niño increases the likelihood of temperature records being broken. The World Weather Organization (WMO) calls for protective measures.
Munich – The dreaded weather phenomenon El Niño is back. As the WMO announced in Geneva on Tuesday (July 4), El Niño conditions are prevailing in the tropical Pacific for the first time since 2016. Consequently, this could affect the weather and climate pattern in different parts of the world.
As early as 2020, El Niño threatened to have dramatic consequences. The Los Angeles Times even reports that Monday (July 3) may have been the hottest day on record. However, that record was unofficially broken on Tuesday and temperatures remained high on Wednesday.
According to media reports, large parts of China and other Asia-Pacific countries are being hit by an oppressive heatwave that has been going on for more than a week. Eastern Canada, meanwhile, is being gripped by a sweltering heatwave and wildfires that have burned more than 20 million hectares of land and blanketed parts of the Midwest and East Coast in smoke.
New heat wave expected: WMO boss calls for precautions and protective measures
Temperatures have also skyrocketed in the US. In Tampa, Fla., the Fourth of July was the hottest on record, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. Deadly heatwaves fueled by climate change are becoming more common in parts of the US, the reports Los Angeles Times further.
Loud WMO In the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the monthly average temperature rose from 0.44 degrees below the long-term mean in February to 0.9 degrees above the mean in mid-June. Therefore the WMO according to a 90 percent probability that the weather phenomenon will determine the second half of the year. The result: droughts, more floods and more heat. However, it is not yet possible to say how strong El Niño will be this time WMO. At least moderate strength is expected. The WMOUpdate brings together forecasts and expert advice from around the world.
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months. This is loud WMO a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, but occurring in the context of a climate altered by human activities.
“The outbreak of El Niño will significantly increase the likelihood of temperature records being broken and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” he said WMO-Secretary General Prof. Petteri Taalas. “The declaration of El Niño by the WMO is the signal to governments around the world to prepare to limit the impact on our health, our ecosystems and our economy,” Taalas added. “Early warning and anticipatory action during extreme weather events related to this major climate phenomenon are critical to saving lives and livelihoods.”
WMO director of climate services: “We’re not moving in the right direction yet”
With regard to the start of El Niño, a forecast published in May WMO-Reportthat there is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest weather on record, beating the 2016 record.
In which WMOreport, produced by the UK’s Met Office with partners around the world, also states that there is a likelihood that the annual average global surface temperature will temporarily be more than 1.5°C above the provisional temperature between 2023 and 2027 , is around 66 percent. “This is not to say that in the next five years we will exceed the 1.5°C set by the Paris Agreement. Because this agreement refers to a long-term warming over many years. However, it is another wake-up call or early warning that we are not yet moving in the right direction to limit warming to the Paris 2015 targets WMO– Director of Climate Services Prof. Chris Hewitt. (Vivian Werg)
WMO researchers fear another climate problem
For Michael Sparrow, head of climate research at the WMO, however, El Niño is not the only cause for concern. High ocean temperatures and the dramatic decline in Antarctic sea ice extent are deeply troubling, he said.
It is known that the Pacific temperature is rising with the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is currently building up again. It is also clear that this has certain effects on other seas, because the oceans are all connected. “But the extreme temperatures in the North Atlantic right now don’t seem to be related to El Niño, not directly,” he said. “We’re still trying to understand why we’re seeing such extreme warming in the North Atlantic.”
The extent of sea ice in Antarctica was reportedly lower than ever in June this month since satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s. In June it was 17 percent below the long-term average.
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