WOlodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated the United States on Independence Day: “Happy Birthday, America” is the headline of the Ukrainian President’s op-ed in the Wall Street Journal newspaper. The founding of the United States, based on individual liberty and political pluralism, was the greatest enterprise in history to liberate mankind from tyranny. The same decision that the Americans would have made on July 4, 1776, the Ukrainians would have made on February 24, 2022, the day of the Russian invasion.
The background to Zelenskyj’s analogy is clear: the American people have stood by Ukraine, the President wrote, adding: He is certain that this will remain so “to the end”. In fact, fears that the Republican-majority faction in the House of Representatives might be inclined to cut the Biden administration’s funding for Ukraine’s military aid have so far proved unfounded. Kevin McCarthy, Speaker of the First Chamber of Congress, who has since threatened that there will be no “blank check” for Ukraine due to isolationist tendencies in the far-right wing of his parliamentary group, has so far supported the president’s security policy course in principle.
In Washington and other capitals of the western alliance, however, it is taken for granted that the debate about further support for Kiev will flare up again if the Ukrainian offensive is unsuccessful. So far, it has been difficult to assess what military advances Kiev is making. All the more interesting is therefore a trip by CIA Director William Burns to the Ukrainian capital, which only became known afterwards, and which took place in June.
Negotiations by the end of the year?
The Washington Post newspaper, citing a government official who wished to remain anonymous, reported that Burns had “recently” traveled to Ukraine, as he had regularly done since the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression. The purpose of the trip was to assure Kiev that Washington would continue to share intelligence to help the country defend itself. The newspaper goes on to say that the director of the foreign intelligence service had been presented with the ambitious strategy of recapturing Russian-occupied territory and entering into ceasefire negotiations with Moscow by the end of the year. So just when the pre-election season for the presidential election in America begins at the end of next year.
Burns met with Zelenskyy and the heads of the Ukrainian secret services in Kiev. The interlocutors said they were confident of regaining “substantial” areas and moving artillery and missile systems to the border with Russian-controlled Crimea by the autumn. In exchange for a promise not to retake the peninsula, Moscow could be forced to accept the security guarantees Ukraine is hoping for from the West. According to the Washington Post, Moscow is only willing to negotiate if it feels threatened.
It’s about ammo and repairs
As far as military aid is concerned, Western politicians believe that it is currently essential to ensure the supply of ammunition, to repair equipment damaged in combat and to further strengthen the air defense system. It was recently announced that the Biden administration is considering supplying controversial cluster munitions. If the commitment is made quickly, the ammunition could become part of a new aid package as early as next month. The reason for the considerations are the changed conditions on the battlefield in recent weeks. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has not made as much progress as Washington had hoped.
The news channel CNN reported on the government’s considerations, citing government officials. The supply of cluster munitions “would undoubtedly have a significant impact,” the source told the broadcaster. Kiev had asked Washington for cluster munitions since last summer. So far, however, the Biden government has been cautious because of the risk to the civilian population. The Reuters news agency recently reported, citing the Pentagon, that the US military considers cluster munitions useful for Ukraine, particularly against dug-in Russian positions.
Burns’ secret journey took place shortly before the failed uprising of the “Wagner” mercenaries in Russia. Information from the American intelligence services about an imminent uprising in Russia was not a topic of the talks, it said. According to government officials, after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s revolt began, Washington contacted Kiev and asked that the Ukrainian side refrain from conducting covert operations on Russian territory. It was advised to refrain from anything that could influence the outcome of events in Russia. The background to the request was that Vladimir Putin did not want to be given an excuse to blame the United States or Ukraine for the Prigozhin uprising.
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