The next NATO summit is scheduled for July. Ahead of the Vilnius meeting, an expert voices serious concerns if the alliance is challenged by Russia.
New York – Not only in Moscow and Kiev are the course set for the further course of the Ukraine War placed, in which the second major counter-offensive by the defenders is said to have started and recorded initial successes. Important decisions are also on the agenda in Vilnius, which will influence the course of events.
Because on July 11 and 12, the annual NATO summit will take place in the Lithuanian capital. So only about 200 kilometers from the border with Russia. Dealing with the aggressor will once again be the main topic that the representatives of the allies, who have so far only appeared as supporters of Ukraine, have to discuss. Of course, there is also the question: will the war spread to one of the NATO countries, i.e. will the alliance founded as a transatlantic defense alliance be drawn into the conflict?
NATO in the Ukraine war: British general sees failures in the defense alliance
Of course, this cannot be answered seriously, especially since always to hear warning voices again are. In any case, Richard Shirreff sees NATO as anything but well equipped for an open confrontation with the Kremlin surrounding President Vladimir Putin. “Am I confident that NATO really has the capability to field conventional forces for a conventional war with Russia? No, I’m not,” said the British retired general from the US portal Newsweek quoted.
His book 2017: War with Russia was published in 2016. The former Deputy Supreme Commander Nato Europe criticized: “Announced at the summit last year in Madrid Jens Stoltenberg (NATO Secretary General, ed.), NATO would increase its rapid reaction force to 300,000 – that simply didn’t happen.” The alliance is also not spending enough money in other ways, Shirreff thinks: “In Eastern Europe there’s an immense war going on. It’s a land and air battle, so you have to invest a lot in air and land, but that wasn’t done.”
Nato and the military budgets: Shirreff calls for a “kick in the ass”
In view of the cuts plans of many NATO members in the military budgets, the long-standing military man, who is now the managing partner of the consulting company “Strategia Worldwide”, demands: “It needs a real kick in the butt.”
He cites his home country as an example Great Britain. The UK army has shrunk to a “ridiculous size”. In his opinion, this is due to the fact that the Ministry of Defense does not see Russia as the main threat in the long term, but rather China. But: “Geography matters here and Russia is the wolf closest to the sled.”
According to Shirreff, NATO failed to react to the Russian annexation of Crimea by increasing its own capacities. For him, this is a “failure of deterrence”.
NATO fighting Russia? According to the expert, an attack on the area would result in an immediate response
Rose Gottemoeller would probably not sign it like that. According to the former NATO Deputy Secretary General, Vilnius is about “a due diligence in support of what NATO has prepared and done anyway”. That sounds more like small adjustment screws.
She refers opposite Newsweek on the fact that NATO troops have been reinforced on the eastern flank, especially in the Baltic States and in Poland. “This is the front line and if the Russians attack, they will take the first hits. For Russia, this leaves no doubt that an attack on NATO territory, for example the Baltic States, will be seen as an attack on all of NATO, and all of NATO will respond immediately,” stressed the American.
At the same time, Gottemoeller assures: “Since the Crimean invasion in 2014 and due to Russia’s unruly nature at the NATO borders, NATO has realized that it must be combative and able to defend itself against Russian attacks very quickly.”
NATO Response to Russian Attack? It probably depends on the exact background
According to Karl P. Mueller, what NATO’s response to such an attack would look like depends on “what it thinks of the attack.” The senior political scientist at the US think tank “Rand Corporation” leads in Newsweek further from: “When the Russians are panicked and desperate, you act differently than when you think it is a military instrument to help on the way to victory.”
What he expects from the July summit: “There will be a lot of discussion about what commitments each nation will make, who will contribute their forces to what and probably a lot of efforts will be made to coordinate everything.”
Mueller is nowhere near as gloomy as Shirreff, for he also cites the benefits of the advanced war, which is already costing Moscow dearly: “It’s easier in many ways to be prepared than it was a year and a half ago, because the war has eroded Russia’s military capabilities were affected. NATO has an opportunity to make major changes in defensive strategy and organization.” (mg)
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