Reports of military operations in Russian territory have increased in recent months, culminating in an attack on Moscow. Experts differ on the motivation behind these maneuvers. The spiral of violence continues. In recent days, Russia has launched daily bombings against Kiev, which have left people dead, including a child. In the Russian region of Belgorod, which borders Ukraine, there are also constant reports of attacks. Russian media reported on the shooting down of a drone in Kaluga on Thursday (01/06) – a day after an attack in Moscow drew international attention.
For almost a year now, drone attacks have been recorded, mainly against military installations and energy infrastructure, not only in Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia, such as Crimea, but also on Russian territory itself. One of the first targets was a refinery in the Rostovia region in June 2022.
Attacks in regions farther from the border are rarer. In December, the Engels military air base in Saratov was attacked twice.
Ukraine typically does not claim responsibility for these attacks. At the same time, Russia is bombing the entire Ukrainian territory much more often, using not only drones, but also missiles of various types. The damage and the victims are not proportionate.
In recent months, drone attacks and bombings in regions outside the combat zone have increased on both sides.
What’s behind the Moscow attack?
Analysts differ on the causes that led to this expansion. Austrian Russia expert Gerhard Mangott points to a link between the drone strike in Moscow, the bombing of Russian border zones and the role of “partisans” – as he calls fighters from paramilitary groups in the Russian Freedom Legion and the Russian Corps. of Russian Volunteers, supposedly composed of Russian citizens, who act on the side of Ukraine.
“It is clear that the Ukrainian side wants to bring the horrors of war to Russia. He wants to make it clear to the population that the State is not capable of protecting them, neither in the border region nor in Moscow”, evaluates Mangott. According to him, this deflects the Kremlin’s attempt to “create the impression for Russian society that there is no war, as if everything is normal”.
The German military specialist Gustav Gressel, from the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, has another assessment and says that it is necessary to distinguish the attacks in Moscow from the events in Belgorod. According to him, the attacks in Moscow are “instruments of psychological warfare”. “The history of Belgorod and the border attacks, on the other hand, are related to the counteroffensive.”
According to Gressel, Ukraine wants to oblige Russia to militarily protect the border and, for that, Moscow would need to withdraw troops from Ukrainian territory. For the specialist, the degree of effectiveness of this strategy of the Ukrainian forces in the counteroffensive will only be measured in a few weeks.
Western reaction to Moscow attacks
The West has had a restrained reaction to recent events. When asked by DW, a German government spokesman said on Wednesday that international law allows Ukraine to attack Russian territory in self-defence, but added that Berlin was against the use of German-supplied weapons in that situation.
The reaction from the United States, Kiev’s main arms supplier, was similar. White House spokesman John Kirby said no US weapons were used in the attack on Moscow and stressed that the US “does not support attacks inside Russia”.
However, representatives of the Russian Volunteer Corps have already used American armored vehicles in an incursion into Russian territory. Gressel hopes this doesn’t happen again, as “it could piss off escalation alarmists in Washington. It is precisely the White House that is overly cautious, Kiev should be more prudent”.
Overall, however, he is convinced that “Kiev has the right to attack targets in Russia” because “no one asked Putin to start this war.” The expert adds that the Russian president needs to bear the consequences of his actions now.
F-16 fighters for intimidation?
In the context of the expansion of attacks on Russian territory, Oleg Ignatov, from the International Crises Group, assesses that Ukraine is trying to “increase the price of war for Russia”. According to the expert, the United States has a lot of influence in Ukraine, but not in all areas. Ignatov believes that Washington can convince Kiev not to use American weapons, such as the Himars missile system, in attacks on Russian territory, but no more than that.
Kiev’s desire to receive more weapons from the West should have a deterrent effect. At the most recent G7 summit in Japan, US President Joe Biden said his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, had promised not to use the F-16 fighter jets, which Ukraine has long requested, to attack Russia. So far, the West has only decided to train Ukrainian pilots, but has not yet released the jets.
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