ZThere have been attempts at a nationwide ceasefire in Sudan since fighting broke out between two factions of the military there on April 15. Some should only last three hours, others several days. Most of the ceasefires were not even remotely complied with, although the fighting parties had promised this again and again.
The regular army and the paramilitary “rapid support forces” (RSF) continued to try to win the power struggle militarily. However, the battlefield is still stalemate after six weeks. The consequences for the population are devastating, especially in the capital Khartoum, where heavy street fighting is raging. According to the United Nations, almost 1.4 million people have fled the fighting.
Most recently, some observers believed in progress. After starting talks in Saudi Jeddah in early May, Saudi Arabia and the United States brokered a seven-day humanitarian ceasefire from May 22. The mediators announced at the end of the period that this had not been complied with by either side either. The army continued to airstrike RSF positions while their fighters continued to hole up in private homes. Relief supplies were also stolen. Nevertheless, a five-day extension of the ceasefire was announced just before it expired on Monday evening. According to Washington and Riyadh’s ideas, the next step should be to achieve a longer-lasting ceasefire.
Army suspended talks in Jeddah
However, it was uncertain on Wednesday whether that would happen. The army said it was suspending talks in Jeddah. The move was to be understood as a protest against the “repeated violations” of the ceasefire by the RSF, an army spokesman told the AP news agency. In particular, he cited the continued occupation of hospitals and other civilian infrastructure in Khartoum by the paramilitary force. Before discussing further steps, the army required that the terms of the ceasefire be “fully implemented.” The RSF responded by saying they “unconditionally support” the Saudi-US initiative.
The army’s retreat does not necessarily mean that mediation efforts have failed. The move was “not surprising,” said Mohamed El Hacen Lebatt, the African Union’s special envoy to Sudan. Such things often happen, Lebatt said on Wednesday; it is still hoped that the mediators will achieve a lasting ceasefire.
However, previous experience does not necessarily suggest this, and numerous experts have since criticized the talks in Jeddah. For example, American Sudan expert Cameron Hudson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank commented that the only winners of the ceasefire were “the warring parties, who did just enough to avoid sanctions but not nearly enough to meet the agreement to meet the specified minimum standard”. However, there are no consequences, Hudson wrote on Twitter.
Riyadh and Washington have also put pressure on themselves to achieve success through the talks in the Saudi port city. They can’t afford to fail, Hudson told the AP. “In the current scenario, diplomats get their truce and can claim progress towards peace. The parties are allowed to keep fighting and the only ones who lose are the 45 million Sudanese.”
According to UN estimates, more than half of the population now needs help and protection. The World Food Program estimates that up to 2.5 million Sudanese will go hungry in the coming months. The situation is apparently getting worse again in Darfur. Villages and refugee camps were again attacked in the western region. Pro-army governor Minni Minnawi on Sunday called on all Darfurians to arm themselves. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, warned on Tuesday that the fighting in Sudan was taking on an “interethnic dimension”.
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