The opposition came very close to a change of power in Turkey. But Erdogan has made it back after 20 years in power. His enemies have already been identified.
Istanbul – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is celebrating. He is standing in front of his palace in the capital Ankara, thousands of people are cheering him on with Turkish flags. “Our democracy has won,” he says. None of the 85 million Turks have lost, he is initially forgiving – and a little later he once again accuses the opposition of having links to terrorists.
Erdogan won the runoff against his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu, cementing his power once again after 20 years at the top of Turkey. According to preliminary results, he received around 52 percent of the votes, Kilicdaroglu around 48 percent. Contrary to all predictions, he was already ahead in the first round two weeks ago, but missed the necessary absolute majority.
Currency crisis, poor crisis management after the earthquake disaster in February and tough action against government opponents, none of this could harm Erdogan in the end.
Opposition complains about unfair election campaign
The opposition, which formed a six-party alliance, complained that the election campaign was unfair. She had hoped to be able to democratize the country again after an election victory. Her followers are devastated. Kilicdaroglu believes that despite Erdogan’s victory, the election shows that the people want “an authoritarian government change”.
Observers fear that Erdogan will govern in an even more authoritarian manner in the future after he has once again legitimized his power. Europe and the USA must now continue to prepare themselves for negotiations with a difficult NATO partner. Erdogan will probably retain his mediating role in the Ukraine war.
Erdogan also owes his electoral success to the support of an Islamist-nationalist alliance. This could continue to shape his politics in the future. “Erdogan has changed the character of the state. He managed to change the Turkish state from a secular-nationalist to an Islamist-nationalist one. And he will continue to push that forward,” says Asli Hürcan Aksoy from the Center for Turkish Studies (CATS).
After Erdogan’s victory, Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu and thousands of supporters celebrated their morning prayers in the Hagia Sophia in Istanbul.
In 2020, despite international protests, Erdogan had the former church converted from a museum into a mosque – a gift to his religious clientele.
Symbolic triumph thanks to anniversary
Also symbolic and a triumph for Erdogan: His victory fell exactly on the 10th anniversary of the anti-government Gezi protests. In the spring of 2013, young people in particular rebelled against Erdogan’s increasingly repressive policies across the country. Erdogan, then Prime Minister, had the protests put down.
The defeat is all the more bitter for the opposition. She looks at Erdogan’s partner with horror. With the Islamist-Kurdish Hüda Par and the Islamist Yeniden Refah, Erdogan has brought two parties into parliament that pursue LGBT and misogynist politics. The Hüda Par, for example, wants to enforce the protection of the “traditional” family from “deviant” ideologies and teach girls and boys separately.
The biggest challenge for Erdogan after the election will be the economy. According to experts, the massive inflation of around 44 percent is also home-made because Erdogan is sticking to his low interest rate policy, contrary to conventional economic logic.
Erdogan has nevertheless managed to convince his supporters that he is not to blame for the economic situation. Economics professor Selva Demiralp wrote in an article that if Erdogan does not return to conventional economic policy, it will be very difficult to repair the damage that has already been done. Turkey expected “very critical days”.
Most of the media controlled by Erdogan
The unequal starting conditions in elections are also part of Erdogan’s success story. According to international election observers, the election campaign was unfair from the start. Erdogan had “unjustified advantages”, they criticized. The majority of the media is controlled by Erdogan, the opposition hardly came up – and when it did, it was mostly negative.
Erdogan also generously distributed election gifts paid for from the state coffers. And he showed manipulated videos. He called the opposition terrorists, and his interior minister, in turn, put pressure on independent election observers. During the vote, several of them were attacked.
The six-party alliance around Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, failed to convey to a majority that the opposition leader was the better alternative to Erdogan. In the first round, she relied on a positive election campaign and conciliatory rhetoric. The turnaround followed before the second lap. In a seemingly desperate attempt to win over ultranationalist voters, Kilicdaroglu fueled anti-refugee rhetoric. He entered into a pact with a right-wing politician. The 180-degree turnaround did not go down well in their own ranks either, and especially not with Kurdish voters. Although the pro-Kurdish HDP once again called for support for Kilicdaroglu, turnout in the Kurdish south-east was below that of the first round.
The most nationalistic parliament in history
The minority should probably not count on an easing of reprisals or even on efforts to find a solution to the Kurdish conflict. The parliament, in which Erdogan’s alliance holds a majority, is also the most nationalist in Turkey’s history. In his victory speech, Erdogan made it clear that former HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas, who has been in prison since 2016, will not come out of prison “as long as we are in power” – even though the European Court of Human Rights had ordered his release.
At least the approximately 3.4 million Syrians in the country should breathe a sigh of relief after Erdogan’s victory. Although Erdogan, like the opposition, has announced that he will send refugees back to northern Syria, observers do not expect major resettlements. Erdogan knows exactly that medium-sized Turkish entrepreneurs in the southeastern Turkish towns of Gaziantep and Sanliurfa need Syrian refugees as workers, says expert Aksoy. “These companies are the backbone of his client-based system.” dpa
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