Polls open in Greece: 10.5 million eligible voters have started going to the polls for the most unpredictable vote in the last decade, which is shaping up to be a close confrontation between the conservative New Democracy (ND) party of outgoing prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the leftist Syriza of former premier Alexis Tsipras. The Greeks will have to elect the 300 members of Parliament, in office for the next 4 years. The implementation of the new electoral system for the first time will probably make it difficult to reach a majority and equally difficult to form a government coalition, so in all likelihood the Greeks will return to vote a second time on 2 July. The main new element is that these will be the first elections since 1990 in which a system of bonus seats will not be used, i.e. a reinforced proportional system, which for many years has assigned the party with the highest number of votes a fixed bonus of 50 seats, thus favoring a one-party parliamentary majority from the first round.
Following a change to the electoral law introduced by Tsipras, Sunday’s general elections will be held under a system of fully proportional representation which makes it nearly impossible to have a one-party government. What’s more, in a country with a highly polarized political discourse and little experience with coalitions, agreement between the parties remains a difficult equation, making a second vote all but certain. Of the 50 political parties that applied to participate in the 2023 national elections to the Supreme Court, 36 were found to be eligible to present their candidates.
The latest available data released by the local press indicate the following voting intentions for Sunday’s elections: New Democracy (centre-right) under the leadership of current Prime Minister Mitsotakis at 33.4%, Syriza-Progressive Alliance (radical left) headed by Tsipras at 27.3%, Pasok-Movement for Change [Kinal] (centre-left) under the leadership of Nikos Androulakis with 9.2%, the Communist Party of Greece with general secretary Dimitris Koutsoumpas with 6.6%, the nationalists of Greek Solution (far right) of Kyriakos Velopoulos with 3.3% and MeRA25 (radical left/greens) with secretary Yanis Varoufakis with 3.6%.
Analysts also highlight the risk of low turnout in the first round, as voters appear to underestimate its importance, and plan to participate in the second round of July voting. The polls on the eve also show a record percentage of 8.5% of undecided voters, tipping the scales, especially among women. In addition to the change of electoral system and the collapse of the traditional two-party system, there are several significant events and data to take into account that could influence the outcome of the vote. The train crash in Tempe, central Greece, last February, with a death toll of 57 caused widespread grief and anger, causing New Democracy to lose support, but at the same time Syriza’s rival failed to intercept support of those voters disillusioned with the ruling Conservative Party. In recent weeks, however, Mitsotakis and his team seem to have recovered a significant part of those votes.
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