Dhe highest unemployment rate in Germany and for years at the bottom of many education studies – that sounds like a made field for the opposition. But a change of government? The people of Bremen don’t want that this time either. “The number one in Bremen – that’s us!” Andreas Bovenschulte calls out to his comrades on Sunday evening.
Bremen’s mayor has every reason to be happy. Because in the last election, in 2019, something unthinkable had happened: His SPD only came second – for the first time since the end of the Second World War. Nevertheless, Bovenschulte was able to govern because he entered into an alliance with the Greens and the Left.
It should be worth it for him. Thanks to the official bonus, the SPD is now back in first place. However, it must also be said that the second-worst result in Bremen’s party history is enough for this.
Many vote CDU again in protest
Above all, the CDU must grieve. In Berlin, she surprisingly took first place in February – despite a candidate that was relatively unknown to voters. Why did Kai Wegner succeed in the capital where Frank Imhoff failed in Bremen and Bremerhaven?
It’s probably mainly due to the competition. In Berlin, only 36 percent of those questioned were satisfied with the work of Prime Minister Franziska Giffey (SPD). In Bremen, on the other hand, incumbent Bovenschulte beats the opponents by far in terms of sympathy values. According to the survey institute Infratest Dimap, 64 percent are satisfied with his work. The Wahlen research group even said 74 percent of those surveyed that he was doing his job rather well. Apparently even so well that even the majority of voters in the opposition parties CDU, FDP and “Bürger in Wut” agree with this verdict. There is no getting around such values.
The CDU, which is now back in second place, has to give cause for concern in the state elections in Bremen, a development that was already noticeable in the Berlin elections. Only every second person votes for the party out of conviction, 43 percent out of disappointment with other parties. In Berlin it was the other way around: 50 percent out of protest – and 43 percent out of conviction.
For the CDU, which sees itself as a people’s party, these are not nice numbers. In Berlin, this brought the party into the government, but in the long run the CDU needs other values here in order to live up to its own claims.
The biggest electoral losers are the Greens. They have to accept a minus of almost six percentage points and only come to just under twelve percent. A comparatively weak value for a large city – and even the worst result since 1999 (then 8.9 percent).
Voter turnout falls again
This election once again shows what the SPD has ahead of the Greens: candidates who make the difference with the voters. The Greens still lack personal prominence in the federal states – apart from Baden-Württemberg, where it is still unclear who will one day succeed Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann.
That’s one of the reasons why the Greens were left behind in Bremen. In any case, Greens top candidate Maike Schaefer, former Senator for Transport, Environment and Building, is the weakest of all top candidates in the candidate factor category – still behind the FDP top candidate, who famously said “Who the heck is Thore Schäck?” had tried.
Schaefer spoke out against free short-term parking for cars, which “is no longer justifiable in view of the climate crisis”. This got her into trouble from voters who did not want to pay parking fees for small purchases. SPD man Bovenschulte quickly opposed Schaefer in the election campaign. When it comes to transport policy, voters ascribe less competence to the Greens in Bremen than the SPD and CDU. In general, the Greens have lost quite a bit in terms of competence values.
The AfD, on the other hand, even gains more if they don’t compete at all, one could put it bluntly. Nationwide, the party has left its pandemic low behind. In Bremen, however, she was not allowed to vote after the divided association had submitted two different electoral lists. The party “Citizens in Anger” collects their voters. No other party gains as many percentage points in Bremen. The local right-wing party gets almost ten percent of the votes. That’s more than the AfD and “Citizens in Anger” put together in the last election.
The left should also be satisfied, who can roughly maintain their result compared to 2019 and thus show that they can still get good election results in West Germany. The FDP, which was kicked out of government twice in state elections (NRW and Schleswig-Holstein) and failed to enter parliament three times (Saarland, Lower Saxony, Berlin), has not been able to celebrate any real success in Bremen either. With 5.2 percent, the Liberal Democrats manage to just over the five percent hurdle.
Voter turnout was low at just 57.4 percent. This is the ninth time voter turnout has fallen in the last ten state elections. The development started with the beginning of the corona pandemic. The only exception: the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in 2021. However, they fell on the same day as the federal elections.
The state elections in October in Hesse and Bavaria, in which almost a quarter of those entitled to vote in Germany can cast their votes, will therefore also be a serious test of mood in terms of voter turnout. Then a turnout of 67.3 (Hesse) and 72.3 percent (Bavaria) is the benchmark.
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