Inflation projection was maintained at 5.90%, according to analysts; Selic rate is forecast at 12.75%
The financial market increased the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) projection for 2023 to 0.85%. The result presents an increase in relation to last week’s report, which showed a projection of 0.84%.
The monetary authority also maintained its inflation estimate at 5.9% after rising for 11 weeks.
The projections are contained in the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (6.Mar.2023) by BC (Central Bank). Here’s the full of the report (805 KB).
The report of BC (Central Bank) is published on Mondays and summarizes, since 2000, the statistical projections of analysts consulted by the monetary authority. It is possible to know the institutions that are most successful here.
O IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) released the GDP result for 2022 last Thursday (2.Mar.2023). According to the institute, the Brazilian economy grew 2.9% in the year, a lower value compared to the previous year, when GDP grew by 5%. The latest estimates included in the Boletim Focus, from analysts interviewed by central bankshowed that Brazil’s economy would grow by 3% last year.
With regard to inflation, the inflation target for 2023 is 3.25%, maintaining a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points, up or down. The goal became central with the federal government’s criticism of BC president Roberto Campos Neto.
The president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) has already defended raising the annual inflation target to, according to him, avoid “arrochar” the economy and make it grow in order to increase income distribution. However, a change in this sense was not the subject of the CMN meeting on February 16, according to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad.
In the Focus published this Monday (6.Mar), market operators also did not change the projections for the Selic, the basic interest rate, and for the dollar. They are at 12.75% and R$5.25, respectively.
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